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Category: UK Elections – others

Punters push Tory spreads to record levels

Punters push Tory spreads to record levels

SportingIndex CON 360-365 LAB 203-208 LD 53-56 But the TV “experts” project a Tory majority of just 4 A big gap has opened up this afternoon between the punters – those who back up their general election predictions with hard cash – and the TV academics who have been analysing the local election results. So while SkyNews has been projecting, based on the handful of results in so far, a Conservative general election total 327 seats the Sporting Index spreads…

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But where are the voters..?

But where are the voters..?

Is turnout going to be on the low side? It’s always quite difficult trying to make a guess at turnout at this stage on polling days. The big rush is generally between 5pm and 7.30pm. Even so the message that’s coming through is that the levels of voter participation are not going to be anywhere near the proportions that some were suggesting over the weekend. Above is the scene outside my own polling station – the refreshment hut at Bedford…

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Is this Brown’s explanation for expected poor results?

Is this Brown’s explanation for expected poor results?

Will today’s likely drubbing be blamed on the plotters? Later on this evening I’m due to be taking part in BBC Radio 5 live’s election programme when the story is surely going to be Labour’s performance – first in the local results that will come out overnight and then throughout Friday – all this to be followed on Sunday evening, of course, when we get the Euro election figures. This is one of those occasions when, unless the polls have…

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What’s this going to do to the elections?

What’s this going to do to the elections?

Remember the headlines two months ago today? Exactly two months ago this morning I did a similar collage of newspaper front pages to the one here – and how different they all looked. For April 3rd 2009 was the day after the G20 meeting and Mr Brown got some of the best coverage of his premiership. Who would have thought then that only a few weeks later that the big political question politics would be whether Brown can hang on….

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What if Labour’s share is worse than the worst polls?

What if Labour’s share is worse than the worst polls?

UKPollingReport Does Brown’s future depend on beating expectations? Perhaps the most critical few hours in Gordon Brown political career will take place on Sunday evening when all the Euro results are coming in. For not only will we be able to find out the big picture but we should also get data, constituency by constituency, of how the parties did within the Westminster seat boundaries. It won’t take long before the news channels and pundits are extrapolating this into what…

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Is this bad news for the Tories?

Is this bad news for the Tories?

YouGov Only 39% of UKIP voters will switch for the general The above table, which I’ve just clipped from YouGov’s cross-tabs on this morning’s poll, is the first time I’ve seen any attempt to link Euro election voting intention to what polling respondents plan to the in the general election. The interesting column is the one I’ve highlighted – what’s going to happen to the UKIP vote once the battle is about who runs Westminster. Inevitably UKIP’s share will drop…

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Marf on Darling’s homes and the YouGov poll we missed

Marf on Darling’s homes and the YouGov poll we missed

And it’s not much change from the online pollster With all the other big political news I missed a new YouGov poll in the Telegraph this morning. The headline Westminster figures were CON 39(nc): LAB 22(-1): LDEM 18(-1). Clearly these have been affected by Thursday’s Euro election and “others” are at a very high level. The Lib Dems will de disappointed that there’s no confirmation of the progress that the ICM poll found yesterday but the online pollster has in…

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Will this be Darling’s last Monday as Chancellor?

Will this be Darling’s last Monday as Chancellor?

Is his position now more flaky than Brown’s? After yesterday’s splash in the Sunday Times suggesting that Brown is planning to install his long-time former close aide, Ed Balls, as Chancellor there’s more gloomy news for the current incumbent, Alistair Darling, today. He’s the big focus of today’s MP expenses disclosures. The paper’s account doesn’t look good for the man in charge of the nation’s money. “..In July 2007, Mr Darling submitted a £1,004 claim for a service charge on…

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