Could Labour have really been squeezed into third place? This was the bar-chart that the Lib Dems were using in Norwich North – all designed to make voters think that they were the challengers to the Tories even though the numbers are from the nation local election count on June 4th. Lib Dem bar charts are all designed to show that they are the challenger. It’s a simple tactic which has been used many times before and, no doubt, will…
Are Cameron’s guys trying to manage expectations? Well there we have it in the panel above – the PB survey of what people expect will happen in the Norwich North by election where voting closes at 10pm. This is one of those occasions where I think the PB community has got it wrong and I’m expecting a bigger margin than 4,999 votes. Betfair has a market on whether the Tory share will be in excess of 41% or not. I’ve…
Let’s see if the PB community can get this right What will be the outcome of today’s Norwich North by-election? CON Majority 10,000 votes or more CON Majority 7,500 – 9,999 CON Majority 5,000 – 7,499 CON Majority 2,500 – 4,999 CON Majority 1 – 2,499 Labour victory Liberal Democrat victory Green Party victory UKIP victory None of the above Who will come second? Conservatives Labour Lib Dems Greens UKIP None of the above Are you in Norwich…
What general election pointers should we be looking for? We’ve had quite a few by elections in this parliament but most have been largely irrelevant in what they say about the Tory-Labour battle that will determine the general election. Tomorrow at Norwich North it’s different. This is a seat that the Tories should pick up relatively easily if they want to maintain their general election expectations – but what do we mean by “relatively easily“? Interestingly the Westminster voting intention…
CON 34 (+1) LAB 30 (-15) LD 15 (-1) GRN 14 (+11) Is the first poll just in line with expectations? The above ICM poll with variations on what happened at the last election was commissioned by Norwich’s University & College Union and has just been published. The sample was just 500 which means a much higher margin of error must be applied. As can be seen the figures are broadly in line with current national polling and, indeed, it…
CON 39 (-1) LAB 25 (+7) LD 19 (+1) A new poll tonight from Ipsos-MORI has Labour rising above the floor of 18% which was recorded earlier in the month and back into the mid 20s. MORI has a very tight turnout filter and only includes the “100% certains” in its headline figures. This tends to produce quite a lot of turbulence. Another MORI feature is that it weights by whether people work in the public sector or not because…
YouGov – June 3rd CON 26 LAB 16 LD 15 UKIP 18 GRN 10 BNP 5 ComRes – May 31st CON 24 LAB 22 LD 14 UKIP 17 GRN 15 BNP 2 ICM – May 28th CON 29 LAB 17 LD 20 UKIP 10 GRN 11 BNP 5 Populus – May 28th CON 30 LAB 16 LD 12 UKIP 19 GRN 10 BNP 5 BPIX – May 16th CON 30 LAB 17 LD 15 UKIP 17 GRN ?? BNP 5…
Now for some betting action… I spent all of yesterday with Iain Dale and Hopi Sen on the PLAY Talk Radio show covering the local election results, the PM’s press conference, the mother of all reshuffles, and general political debates of the day. By my reckoning we had between 4 and 6 months’ news yesterday, but the 9-and-a-half hour show was topped with a PoliticalBetting.com cherry: a competitive by-election sparked by the resignation of Labour MP Dr Ian Gibson in…