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Category: UK Elections – others

Unlike Bradford West there’s nothing in the betting to suggest anything but LAB holds in Thursday’s 3 by-elections

Unlike Bradford West there’s nothing in the betting to suggest anything but LAB holds in Thursday’s 3 by-elections

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Betfair data shows that there’s hardly a rush of money going on parties other than LAB in Rotherham. £61 backing Respect & £62 UKIP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2012 Betfair data also show that in Croydon N the total of bets bcking Respect totals just £34 with £0 going on UKIP. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2012 On the Middlesbrough Betfair market nobody has backed anycandidate other than LAB. Last price traded 1/100. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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November 15th 2012 – A slap in the face for politics

November 15th 2012 – A slap in the face for politics

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What are we to make of the dismal turnout? The November 2012 elections were meant to go down in history as the start of a brave new era of direct democracy. They will go down in history but not for that reason. The May referendums put the first dent in the plan, when all the cities bar Bristol voted down the mayoral option. The second, and more significant, hit was delivered by the mass abstentions on Thursday. While a low…

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At least there shouldn’t be that many votes to count…

At least there shouldn’t be that many votes to count…

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@paulwaugh This morning at York Priory Street Centre there were more people queuing to give blood than vote twitter.com/jmalexander198… — James Alexander (@jmalexander1982) November 15, 2012 It looks good for LAB but not that good With a huge number of elections on different sorts taking place yesterday the focus overnight and now is on the counts and the pitifully low turnouts. Two Westminster by-elections counted which have been held by LAB with biggish swings to them. But Manchester Central and…

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Marf for the afternoon thread… + election and betting news

Marf for the afternoon thread… + election and betting news

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If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. I’m getting a few reports that PCC election turnout not quite as low as was being predicted. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 15, 2012 @msmithsonpb I wonder how many have been placed my campaigns too boost their odds? — Paul Smith Bristol (@bristolpaul) November 15, 2012 @bristolpaul They thought George Galloway was doing that in Bradford by-election & the bookies lost a packet. —…

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The PCC elections: the party machines will prevail

The PCC elections: the party machines will prevail

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Tomorrow the big party machines will prevail in the police commissioner elections. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=53712 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 14, 2012 The chances for the indies aren’t very high When the idea of elected Police and Crime Commissioners was being mooted one of the hopes that it would attract independent candidates without party allegiance. It certainly has done that but because of the very limited opportunity for individuals to get their message across this has proved challenging. Simply getting a…

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Tomorrow’s only interesting bet – whether UKIP will get more votes than the LDs in Corby

Tomorrow’s only interesting bet – whether UKIP will get more votes than the LDs in Corby

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UKIP strong FAV at Corby to beat LDs. With LAB such a certainty this is the only interesting bet. bit.ly/u6wr8r twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 14, 2012 After my plea yesterday for more betting markets for tomorrow elections William Hill has put a few up. I can’t see any other victor than LAB though the 1/100 is hardly tempting. The Tories, who won the seat at the general election, are not going to lose their deposit. So the only…

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Calling the bookmakers – what about some interesting markets for Thursday’s elections?

Calling the bookmakers – what about some interesting markets for Thursday’s elections?

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@emcg67The competition for voters’ attention in mid-Beds. The first electoral test for Nadine?? twitter.com/EMcG67/status/… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 13, 2012 What about the Nadine effect in her area? Thursday will see the second biggest set of elections in the UK before the general election. The party machines are now getting wound up for the 41 Police and Crime Commissioner elections, the Bristol mayor, three Westminster by-elections an a whole host of small votes. In Bedfordshire the Tory campaign has…

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YouGov suggests that turnout in the PCC elections is going to be higher than expected. Time to bet?

YouGov suggests that turnout in the PCC elections is going to be higher than expected. Time to bet?

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If YouGov’s finding on likely turnout in Thursday’s PCC election is correct then taking the 5/6 at 20%+ is a good bet twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 13, 2012 Should we be a bit cautious about the findings? Ladbrokes have adjusted their PCC elections turnout bet following the YouGov poll at the weekend that had 28% in the areas where elections will be held saying they were 10/10 certain to vote. On the face of it this makes the…

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