Picture: Raheem Kassam’s twitter feed. The tectonic plates are moving, so John Prescott once told us. Boy have they moved this year: we have seen the most almighty earthquake storm. What reverberations can we expect for Brexit from the election of Donald Trump? Is it good news or bad news for Britain? For decades Britain has had a strategy of being a bridge between Europe and the US, through its trading and political links to the EU and its military…
Trump being sworn in — political cartoon gallery pic.twitter.com/bAlxBrbv2d — Political Cartoon (@Cartoon4sale) November 10, 2016 Never mind if he meant it or not, Trump campaigned on it Fascist. It’s a word that could have been designed to be spat out as an insult. The first syllable invites you to screw up your face and the second is little more than a glorified hiss. And a very good insult it is, one that’s easily thrown at anyone seeking to implement…
Whatever this is going to go down as a massive polling miss This is becoming a bit of a pattern. A massive election in which the pollsters are seen to have performed badly. We haven’t got the final national vote shares yet but it is likely that Hillary Clinton will have topped Trump so the deviations for many in the RCP list above will be within the margins of error. Unfortunately for her it is state Electoral College Votes that…
I’m sticking with my confidence in favourability ratings Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Embed from Getty Images Is the GOP nominee flying blind in the swing states? One of the fun things about the final few days of any election campaign, be it a US Presidential race or a UK general election is seeing where the leaders/candidates are spending the final few days of the campaign as it feels you glean where the battleground states are based on the candidate’s private polling which in turn gives you an indication of the final result….
Via @williamjordann Happy US families ahead of WH2016YouGov US: 33% of men say spouse supports Clinton compared with 45% who say they are pic.twitter.com/3XoNjKLW86 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2016 The mug of a week tomorrow? pic.twitter.com/hlRuqgeUNd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2016
Exclusive investigation in Telegraph : Donald Trump faces foreign donor fundraising scandal https://t.co/1mjGOhco8j — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 24, 2016 After the England soccer manager, can the Telegraph investigations team topple the Donald? https://t.co/ANEnfyO74q — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 24, 2016 This has replaced the previous thread posted a couple of minutes ago
Also Trump didn't over-perform his polls in the primary. If anything the opposite happened. pic.twitter.com/UFVO6BvRLe — (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 22, 2016 If there are ‘Shy Trumpers’ you’d expect Donald Trump to have outperformed the polls during the primaries and caucuses. One of the more interesting theories posited during this White House race on why Donald Trump will become President is that the polls are wrong because there are shy Trumpers not being picked up in the polls. With Donald…