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Category: Tories

Has he changed his mind too late?

Has he changed his mind too late?

Will Clarke’s switch on the euro come across as common sense or opportunism? In the Conservative leadership race, the chances of Kenneth Clarke seem to have been rescued from a badly flagging position since Clarke – the only really prominent Conservative to have supported the euro – admitted that he now saw the single currency as “a failure”. Less than two weeks ago, Clarke’s campaign was being deserted by former supporters such as Tony Baldry, with only John Bercow and…

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Does the Conservative electoral system matter to gamblers?

Does the Conservative electoral system matter to gamblers?

Would Tory members rally around a candidate rejected by MPs? Last month, the Conservative parliamentary party voted to accept a proposed change to the party’s constitution which would return to MPs the final responsibility of electing the party leader. In the last contested election, in 2001, Conservative members chose Iain Duncan Smith, despite his having come second to Kenneth Clarke in the MPs’ ballot. The constitutional amendment must be ratified by a two-thirds majority of the party’s national convention on…

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The disappointing summer of Sir Malcolm Rifkind

The disappointing summer of Sir Malcolm Rifkind

Does John Major’s Foreign Secretary stand an earthly? Our chart based on the best betting prices showing the implied probability of Malcolm Rifkind becoming Tory leader says it all. After an early flurry in the first week or so of the campaign when it touched 10% the Rifkind figure has slipped to barely a third of that. Even Rifkind’s much publicised “Tories are defective” statement at the weekend has not given him the boost he must have hoped for. Given…

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Follow “Wat Tyler” for the best Tory form guide

Follow “Wat Tyler” for the best Tory form guide

Who is David Davis’s web cheer-leader attacking today? Punters wanting to find out which contender members of the Davis Davis team consider to be the greatest current threat should go to the blog of the Shadow Home Secretary’s internet cheer-leader and the comments on this site by the man behind it and who uses the alias Wat Tyler – of Peasant’s Revolt fame. For almost every day visitors to his site are treated to fierce, biting and usually amusing attacks…

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“Ken Clarke ready to ditch support for the Euro” – Guardian

“Ken Clarke ready to ditch support for the Euro” – Guardian

Would such a U-turn be enough to beat David Davis? After our thread yesterday on Ken Clarke’s bid for the Tory leadership comes a report this morning that the former Tory Chancellor is prepared to ditch his long-standing support for the Euro in order to position himself better in the campaign for his party’s leadership. Many observers believe that Clarke’s support for the Euro and being ready in 1999 (above) to sit alongside Tony Blair on a platform on the…

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Suddenly Ken Clarke is back in fashion again

Suddenly Ken Clarke is back in fashion again

What’s behind the betting move towards the veteran campaigner? It’s some time since we featured our chart showing prices changes in the Tory leadership race because there’s been so little movement. For weeks the implied probability based on best betting prices has David Davis at more than 55%; David Cameron on 22% and the rest of the field almost nowhere – except Ken Clarke. For the former Tory Chancellor has seen a recovery and is not far off the peak…

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Will it be third time lucky for David Davis?

Will it be third time lucky for David Davis?

2001 2003 2005? Three faces of the man punters think will take on Gordon Brown Yesterday’s attack by David Davis in the Daily Telegraph on multiculturalism was a foretaste of what we can expect in the coming weeks as leading contenders for the Tory leadership try to position themselves as the right person to stave off a fourth successive General Election defeat. The Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis, has been here before. In the 2001 contest he came joint bottom…

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Why my money is staying on Cameron

Why my money is staying on Cameron

Is the old Etonian the “natural successor to Blair”? For somebody who only came into parliament four years ago David Cameron has moved very quickly and it says a lot about his political and media skills that he has established himself as the main challenger to David Davis. When people discuss Cameron they focus on his old school and hardly anybody comments on his “day job” before 2001 as the PR boss for Britain’s biggest ITV company. This guy is…

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