UPDATED 0730 Tory leadership: RED Cameron, BLACK Davis, BLUE Clarke, GREEN Fox Cameron now odds-on in all markets after YouGov poll boost A YouGov poll of Tory party members has confirmed the betting trend of the past week that David Cameron, 39 today, looks in a very strong position to take the Tory leadership provided that his fellow MPs vote him onto the final short-list of two that will go to the national ballot next month. In just seven days…
Did Newsnight’s survey finish off the other contenders? We agree with Andrew Grice in the Independent this morning, that the most important Tory leadership factor this week was not anything that happened in the conference hall, but a feature on Newsnight showing the leading US pollster, Frank Luntz, conducting a focus group. If you have not seen this yet then this is must and you can still download a video from the the programme’s website. It’s the most compelling and…
updated 0645 Will the Davis waverers resist the ex-whip’s “overtures”? With David Cameron now the 1.36/1 firm favourite the focus in the Tory leadership battle moves to Westminster next week where the big issue will be whether the MPs, pictured here on the David Davis website, will stick with the Shadow Home Secretary. Before the conference they had all agreed to allow their names and pictures to be associated with the campaign and if they don’t change their minds then…
But why’s he talking about the betting at all One of the things that really irritates me is when people tell porkies about betting odds in order to make a political point. Last year I had a go about the Lib Dems claiming to be “second favourite” in the London Mayoral race and now David Davis is saying on TV that he’s still “odds-on” to win the leadership contest. He made the statement in a BBC interview this morning and…
Tory leadership: Implied probability of Davis based on best betting price What are the dangers of having less than a 50:50 chance? One of the key arguments used by Davis’s team as they have sought to persuade Tory MPs to make public declarations of support has been the Shadow Home Secretary’s position in the betting. After all, they were saying, if the bookies are rating Davis so highly you would be a fool to back anybody other than the “obvious”…
How will editors be influenced by the events in Blackpool? With the final decision over the next Tory leader being in the hands of the party’s grass-roots a key dimension will be how the press, particularly the traditional Tory-backers, line up behind the different candidates. The media views and endorsements could be critical this weekend as Tory MPs go back to their constituencies and get feedback ahead of the parliamentary party’s shortlisting election at Westminster. In 2001 it is generally…
Big changes on the betting markets this morning after the front-runner, David Davis, made his 20 minutes speech to delegates assembled in Blackpool’s Winter Gardens. On the Betfair betting exchange the Davis price opened at 0.78/1 – thus a £100 bet would produce profits of £78. Within an hour of him finishing the price had slumped to 1.08/1. So a wining bet will, as of time of posting, produce £108. This is a long way off what 0.58/1 that was…
Tory leadership: RED Davis, BLACK Clarke, BLUE Cameron, GREEN Fox But will he suffer the favourite’s curse? For all the media is focusing on Ken Clarke’s speech this morning the big change in our implied probability chart based on best betting prices has been towards the 38 year old Shadow Education Secretary, David Cameron, who is now back to second favourite. The Shadow Home Secretary goes into his platform speech today with the knowledge that in terms of public declarations…