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Category: Tories

What if these headlines had reported a 13% Tory deficit?

What if these headlines had reported a 13% Tory deficit?

Would Blackpool have been different if a poll had not been suppressed? November 1st, the day Labour was planning for the general election, is probably a good moment to reflect on the amazing events of the past six weeks. And one element that nobody’s really focussed on is the impact of Observer decision not to publish on September 29th an Ipsos-Mori poll showing the Tories 13% behind. For if it had been the splash lead rather than what did appear…

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Could this alienate Dave’s Lib Dem switchers?

Could this alienate Dave’s Lib Dem switchers?

How can Cameron appeal to two audiences at the same time? Whenever pollsters ask about the main issue that concerns voters then immigration invariably comes top of the list. In the latest Ipsos-Mori poll 41% of those interviewed said, unprompted, that “race relations/immigration/immigrants” was amongst their top concerns. Politicians of all parties know this and are ultra-careful when they move into this policy area – but peddling what appears to be a highly populist anti-immigrant line can have its own…

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Is Cameron onto a winner playing the English card?

Is Cameron onto a winner playing the English card?

How should Labour respond to the Rifkind plan? Reproduced above is part of the coverage that the Daily Mail is giving this morning to the plans that are emerging over what the Tories will do about Scottish devolution and the so called “West Lothian Question”. Clearly the growing disparity between public services north and south of the border, which is being skilfully exploited by Scotland’s First Minister, Alex Salmond, is not going to go away. Free prescriptions, free home care…

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Who’ll come out of this row best?

Who’ll come out of this row best?

Will a U-turn help Gord or not? An issue on which the Lib Dems have been making the running, the plan to take away 5% of school budget surpluses, was used by David Cameron at PMQs yesterday for his first line of attack against Gordon Brown. The Tory leader said that it was “unjust, an ill-conceived idea” which undermines governors’ authority. This morning the Independent carries a report, part of which is reproduced above, that the Prime Minister is planning…

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Can Brown maintain union funding AND stop Ashcroft?

Can Brown maintain union funding AND stop Ashcroft?

Is party funding about to become the next battle-ground? This is Michael Ashcroft who in this year’s Sunday Times Rich List was placed in position 87 with an estimated wealth of £800m. He’s a major donor to the Tory party and before the 2005 general election, as was reported here, he hand-picked a group of Tory candidates in marginal constituencies and then was responsible for providing extra attention and funding to help them with their campaigns. This morning he is…

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Should the Tories be fearing Nick Clegg?

Should the Tories be fearing Nick Clegg?

How will the polls be affected by a LD resurgence We have not had any national polls since the dramatic announcement by Ming Campbell but my guess is that when we do we’ll see the third party increase its shares from the terrible lows that it has experienced in recent weeks. For one thing that Ming’s resignation has done has been to get his party onto the bulletins once again – and usually the more the Lib Dems are in…

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Should you bet on another pre-election casualty?

Should you bet on another pre-election casualty?

What’s the chance of either Dave or Gord being ousted? One of the bets I placed in the immediate aftermath of the Brown “no election” declaration was in Betfair’s “Next General Election – party leaders” market. Here you have to predict which of the Ming, Gord and Dave will still be there on polling day and at the time I suggested betting against, by laying, all three still being in post. That bet seemed to offer the most options and…

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Is this Day One of the election campaign?

Is this Day One of the election campaign?

But is Brown waiting for the polls? Who would have thought that the first battle of the 2007 election campaign, if indeed that is what we are seeing, would be about the tax treatment of so called “non-doms” – people who work and live here but are not “domiciled”? The speed and ferocity of the Labour rebuttal machine as it sought to undermine the calculations behind the Tory plan to fund the inheritance tax proposal are a taste of what…

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