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Category: Tories

Looking at conference rhetoric – the politics of fear and the politics of hope

Looking at conference rhetoric – the politics of fear and the politics of hope

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A guest slot by CycleFree It has become a truism that political campaigns based on fear are doomed to fail. Positive visions, hope and excitement are what we want, apparently. And there is some evidence to support this: Corbyn’s genuinely inspiring campaigning for what he has said and believed these last four (five?) decades, the increasingly desperate Remain campaign and, of course, May’s abysmal GE campaign, which wholly failed to explain why Corbyn’s choices and what they say about his…

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The war without end

The war without end

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Picture: Not the last Tory PM to have their premiership destroyed by Europe Can Mrs May’s speech today accomplish what every Tory PM has failed to achieve in the last 40 years and finally unite the Tory party over Europe? I was born a few months before Margaret Thatcher became PM, which will make me forty next year, in that time frame every Tory Prime Minister has had their premiership either ended or destroyed by European Community/Union affairs, and it…

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The DUP deal has cost a lot more than £2bn: it’s blown apart the Tories’ economic case

The DUP deal has cost a lot more than £2bn: it’s blown apart the Tories’ economic case

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Austerity is dead – but what can replace it? YouGov published the results of an innovative survey on Thursday, where it found that the British public seemed more willing to pay a Brexit bill of £25bn (where 29% said they would find that acceptable), than one of £10bn (backed by 18%). Good news for Monsieur Barnier? Not exactly. The survey was designed to assess the effect of the options presented on the answers elicited, with the sample split into two…

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How Kim Jong-un makes Sir Michael Fallon Prime Minister

How Kim Jong-un makes Sir Michael Fallon Prime Minister

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Because of a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing, we once again could see a new Prime Minister. I’m not going to pretend I’m an expert on affairs on the Korean peninsula, my knowledge is pretty much based on the excellent book by Sir Max Hastings on The Korean War and what I have learned from the media. But if matters do escalate for a full blown (nuclear) war there then we will…

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The Body In Number 10. Solving the mystery of Theresa May’s replacement

The Body In Number 10. Solving the mystery of Theresa May’s replacement

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In their own way, Agatha Christie novels are sublime works of art.  Complaining that they lack plausible characterisation or profound social commentary is as silly as complaining that you can’t enjoy the landscapes in a Bridget Riley: that’s not what they’re trying to do.  Mrs Christie successfully provided briskly written puzzles set in a comforting world where her readers would like to live.  She fairly set out all the facts yet still managed to surprise them with her resolution of…

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David Davis still firm favourite to succeed TMay while Johnson slips to 5th

David Davis still firm favourite to succeed TMay while Johnson slips to 5th

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The latest CON leadership betting David Davis 18% Phillip Hammond 9% Jacob Rees-Mogg 9% Amber Rudd 9% Boris Johnson 8% Ruth Davidson 5% Damian Green 4% This is based on last trades on Betfair. What will ignite this market is any suggestion in the run-up or at conference in the first week of October that a challenge could be mounted to TMay. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Ruth Davidson’s Scottish successes saved TMay’s bacon on June 8th but that comes at a price

Ruth Davidson’s Scottish successes saved TMay’s bacon on June 8th but that comes at a price

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The mathematics of the Tory power struggle The chart is very simple but illustrates clearly why Scottish Conservative leader feels able to to put pressure on TMay over the PM’s hardline immigration rhetoric. Davidson is making a pro-immigration argument that’s rarely heard from a Conservative. She says ‘with the country on the road to full employment, potential for growth is facing ever greater limitations’ without the boost from immigrants. The Scottish Conservative leader attacks May for her “easy slogans” on…

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The Tories needs to resolve divisions soon because divided parties struggle at election time

The Tories needs to resolve divisions soon because divided parties struggle at election time

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One of the things that we know from previous elections is that parties that are seen to be divided can get punished by the voters. That was John Major’s fate at GE1997 after five difficult years of one split after another. The current situation, as seen in the recent YouGov polling illustrated in the chart and touched on in this week’s podcast, looks challenging and could be hugely problematical if there is the need for an early election. This, of…

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