Henry G Manson writes in Praise of Tory MP Robert Halfon Last Christmas I took up the challenge of writing in praise of a Conservative MP I admire. As part of last year’s season of goodwill I chose David Davis This year I am taking my Santa’s hat off to Harlow’s Conservative MP Robert Halfon. Bob is defending a 4,925 majority but could prove to be very difficult for Labour shift for good reason. Halfon is a truly campaigning MP….
If the trend in the Ipsos MORI Issues index is correct then the NHS is not as politically potent as it was.See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 20, 2012 Concern about the service drops to lowest level since election Last night the Ipsos-MORI Issues Index for December was published and one of the highlights was the decline in the numbers of those saying that the NHS was an important issue facing the country. The Index operates in a…
No 10 “allegations a serving police officer posed as member of public and fabricated evidence against a Cab Min are exceptionally serious”. — Patrick Wintour (@patrickwintour) December 18, 2012 There was, of course, a lively betting market during the few weeks before Mitchell stepped down. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB
Powerful I front page lead on Tory splits over gay marriage independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2012 The polls seem to back Dave As the I and the Indy are reporting this morning there’s a schism growing within the Tory party over gay marriage – on which an announcement is expected this week. On the one hand a powerful grouping including Boris and Gove are getting behind the proposal while a traidtionalist faction is getting ready to…
What needs to change to win the key marginals? There was a fringe meeting at Conservative Party conference this autumn (see above) on how their party can win more votes and seats in the North. Without new boundaries it will be increasingly hard for the blue team to win a parliamentary majority without gaining more seats in the North of England, so it’s a live electoral issue. A recording of the debate has been posted online and it’s a good…
An Ashcroft poll of Mid Beds voters has Nadine right at bottom on the positing/negative ratings. bit.ly/SdnU8b twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2012 There’s a new Michael Ashcroft poll just out taken in the ultra-safe blue seat of Mid-Befordshire where, of course, Nadine Dorries is MP. One set of question asked the sample of 1,500 to rate how positively or negatively a selection of prominent male politicians in comparison with Nadine. The figures are above. The danger is…
Ladbrokes make it evens that Nadine will be re-elected as an MP (for any party) and 8/11 she isn’t bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2012 Is this a realistic assessment of her chances? If the voting in “I’m a celebrity get me out of here” goes against her then the Central Bedfordshire Tory MP, Nadine Dorries, will be heading back to the UK quite soon. No doubt her first appointment will be a meeting (without coffee as…
Will new Tory campaign boss,Lynton Crosby,go back to his 2005 ads for Michael Howard like this one? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 18, 2012 Or are there dangers in Lynton’s Crosby’s approach? The big political news of the day has been the appointment by David Cameron of the Australian campaign guru, Lynton Crosby, to run the Tory 2015 general election campaign. Crosby is no stranger to these shores. Back in 2005 he was hired by Dave’s predecessor, Michael Howard,…