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The drip feed of the marginals polling could lead to more of the CON intake of 2010 deciding to call it a day

The drip feed of the marginals polling could lead to more of the CON intake of 2010 deciding to call it a day

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How many will follow the Laura Sandys route? We’ll have to wait until the early hours of May 8th 2015 before we can start to say for sure whether the Ashcroft marginals polling or the Alan Bown funded Survation polls are in anyway accurate but they could have a more immediate impact – on the decisions of many in the Conservative “class of 2010“ on whether to continue in politics. For a consequence of the marginals and single constituency polling…

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Is John Rentoul right – Was Boris’ speech a disaster and Theresa May has just come a little closer to being Theresa Will?

Is John Rentoul right – Was Boris’ speech a disaster and Theresa May has just come a little closer to being Theresa Will?

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On Wednesday Boris Johnson delivered the Margaret Thatcher lecture at the Centre for Policy Studies. You can read the full speech here. I must declare an interest, speaking as a Tory, I loved the speech, in my opinion, this is the sort of speech more Tories need to make. Unsurprisingly It has lead to pieces like Boris Johnson’s philosophy isn’t just elitist – it’s sinister and  Boris Johnon is Still a ‘Nasty Piece of Work’? even George Osborne distanced himself from parts of…

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The answer to Ben Brogan’s point about why in current context the Tories are doing badly is here from the August Ipsos-MORI poll

The answer to Ben Brogan’s point about why in current context the Tories are doing badly is here from the August Ipsos-MORI poll

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Telegraph's Ben Brogan says q not why LAB doing well, but why CON badly? http://t.co/stEH68O5IM See this Aug 1/2 pic.twitter.com/NPiPYxk9LD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2013 And this on EdM & LAB from same Ipsos-MORI poll in August CON liked a lot less than LAB pic.twitter.com/32CRpINKW8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2013 The ANTI-CON tribe is bigger than the PRO-CON one As can be seen the Tories have a net minus 19% on the like/dislike question. Labour by contrast…

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My 70-1 Andrew Mitchell next CON leader bet is looking a tad more promising

My 70-1 Andrew Mitchell next CON leader bet is looking a tad more promising

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Could he fit the bill for the blues after a GE2015 defeat? Just before Christmas last year, a couple of days after the Michael Crick film raising doubts about the whole Plebgate issue, I put a bit of money on Andrew Mitchell for next CON leader with Betfair at 70/1. The last week has seen the affair move forward dramatically in a way that can only help Mitchell. The narrative can only move his way more. He looks like the…

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David Herdson argues that the rising cost of living might not be Miliband’s magic bullet

David Herdson argues that the rising cost of living might not be Miliband’s magic bullet

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Labour could be handing the government the economic debate by default Two news stories this week again highlighted the critical issue of the cost of living, which Ed Miliband made the centrepiece of his conference speech, and which Labour has been pushing ever since its leaders worked out that a genuine economic recovery was underway. The first was the round of energy price hikes, which may or may not be partially related to that very speech – there was plenty…

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The polling figures that could lay to rest any idea of a CON-UKIP electoral alliance

The polling figures that could lay to rest any idea of a CON-UKIP electoral alliance

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What happened when voters were asked by YouGov how a CON-UKIP alliance would impact on their GE2015 preferences On the face of it this seems odd. For in the comparison standard poll CON and UKIP together had combined support of 44%. Yet just 35% told the pollsters that they would vote for a CON-UKIP alliance. What happened to the other 9%? This was the question that YouGov put after the standard one:- “Imagine that UKIP and the Conservatives agreed a…

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Sean Fear – a great loss for the Tories and a great catch for UKIP

Sean Fear – a great loss for the Tories and a great catch for UKIP

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One thing that Sean isn’t is a “fruit-cake” On one of the Syrian threads last week long-standing PB regular, Sean Fear, announced that he’d switched from the Tories to UKIP. Sean’s relationship with the site is a long one. Back in 2004 he became just about the first regular Tory poster here at a time when the threads were totally dominated dominated by Labour supporters. He built up a great reputation for his courtesy, his detailed knowledge of elections and…

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