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“The next CON leader will not be a white man” – Tory insider

“The next CON leader will not be a white man” – Tory insider

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Theresa May up 4% in ConHome party members’ next leader survey The comment in the heading for this post was made to me at a recent social event by someone I regard as a leading Tory insider. It certainly has a ring of truth about it given that the two contenders currently being talked about are Theresa May and Sajid Javid, the culture Secretary. This conversation took place before the latest ConHome findings from its regular party member surveys. Theresa…

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There’s no evidence from the constituency polling of a first time bonus for CON incumbents

There’s no evidence from the constituency polling of a first time bonus for CON incumbents

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This is NOT something that the blue team can rely on One of the great hopes for the Tories just five months from the general election is that in the key battlegrounds with LAB, those where they won in 2010, incumbent MPs standing again will enjoy a bonus. Some commentators have put this at as much as 3% and then sought to do seat calculations based on this applying to every CON defence. It is certainly true that first time…

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The great CON Rochester primary mystery – how the reported turnout of 4,000 became 5,688

The great CON Rochester primary mystery – how the reported turnout of 4,000 became 5,688

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Why aren’t we getting the full numbers like in Totnes in 2009? Totnes CON primary result 2009. All vote detail including spoilt ballots. Why not same for Rochester one? pic.twitter.com/yrKclLtJN7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 24, 2014 The first news that all was not well with the CON Rochester primary was this report, now not on the Spectator site, from the usually well informed Isabel Hardman. How the Speccie's Isabel Hardman first reported Rochester CON primary result. pic.twitter.com/iDo1h9LhCz — Mike…

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UPDATED: Just 5,688 of Rochester’s 70k+ electors took part in the Tory primary and the winner got it by less than 1%

UPDATED: Just 5,688 of Rochester’s 70k+ electors took part in the Tory primary and the winner got it by less than 1%

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@jameschappers Given that each of the 70k+ electors got a reported THREE mailings 5,588 ballots returned still makes it a flop — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 The earlier Spectator report proved to an underestimate The reported turnout of 4000 in the Rochester Tory primary is a disaster for the party given the efforts put into it pic.twitter.com/bPJAMgYGHq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 By comparison with low turn-out in Rochester Conservative primary, 16,497 people voted in Totnes…

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CON hopes are based on the LDs flourishing in LAB-CON marginals but not in CON-LD ones. The opposite is the case.

CON hopes are based on the LDs flourishing in LAB-CON marginals but not in CON-LD ones. The opposite is the case.

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GE2015 will see the return of big time tactical voting Because so much has been going on politically in the past few days very little attention has been paid to the latest round of marginals polling that was published by Lord Ashcroft last Sunday afternoon. The focus was on Lib Dem seats and the chart above is based on Lord A”s aggregate data from 17 separate polls. We’ve talked so often before about the collapse of the Lib Dem vote…

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Memo to the Tories: Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement

Memo to the Tories: Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement

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Since the defection of Mark Reckless to UKIP, I’ve not been surprised at the opprobrium heaped at Mark Reckless from the Tories, mostly because of his timing and his assurances that he wouldn’t defect. Tory MP to BuzzFeed on Mark Reckless defecting: “I can’t say the word c**t but he’s a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse.” — Jim Waterson (@jimwaterson) September 28, 2014 The above tweet, shows the depth of the anger, the thing that…

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Let’s end this lazy assumption that UKIP voters are just Tories on holiday

Let’s end this lazy assumption that UKIP voters are just Tories on holiday

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The numbers show that this is simply not the case You read and see this all the time both inside the Westminster bubble and out of it. Ukip voters, so the pervasive narrative goes, are simply ex-CON voters who can, if Lynton Crosby plays his cards properly, be seduced back into the fold thus providing the blues with the platform to secure an overall majority next May. Thus the following is a statement that many might find hard to comprehend…

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Say hello to the Lilac Tories

Say hello to the Lilac Tories

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David Herdson on Cameron’s line-up for GE2015 Squaring circles is part of the business of politics.  One such conundrum David Cameron has to face is how to simultaneously make the party he leads more appealing to centrist floating voters while also attracting back those who’ve defected to UKIP.  On the face of it, those are two incompatible objectives: how can a party move both left and right at the same time?  The simple answer is it can’t; the more complex…

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