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Category: Theresa May

No Deal or No government: the pincers close on May

No Deal or No government: the pincers close on May

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She can’t please all the (necessary) people all the time Not only is Theresa May a bloody difficult woman, she’s also a bloody difficult woman to shift. The ERG, with all their customary Keystone Cops planning, proved once again this week that when it comes to continuing her mission, the PM has a Terminator-like resilience to her and that it takes rather more than saying nasty things in posh voices to blow her off course. Their failure, however, was not…

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The confidence vote betting: How the betting markets got it right from the vey start

The confidence vote betting: How the betting markets got it right from the vey start

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Chart betdata.io But if punters could see this why not Moggsy’s ERG? Yesterday was a huge political betting day with two million pounds on the Betfair market alone being wagered on the confidence vote on Theresa May. It’s quite useful to look back and see how the markets performed against the actual result and as can be seen the lowest it ever dropped to on the Betfair Exchange for Mrs May was within the first hour at 9.40am when it…

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If punters risking their cash have got this right TMay’s safe

If punters risking their cash have got this right TMay’s safe

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But could the betting markets have it wrong? Betfair and the other bookies were quick off the mark this morning getting markets up following news that tonight we will see a confidence vote amongst Conservative MPs on Theresa May. So far, it seems that political betting public at least thinks that she is going to survive and currently, as I write, (1200) Betfair has the prime minister with an 80% chance of ending the day still in her job. The…

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Confirmed – 48 letters have been received by Graham Brady and TMay could be voted out tonight

Confirmed – 48 letters have been received by Graham Brady and TMay could be voted out tonight

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So the rumours that we were hearing last night were correct. The names have gone in to the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady, and now we have a confidence vote taking place. Under the rule changes introduced when William Hague was Conservative leader this is the mechanism for ousting someone who has ceased to retain the confidence of the parliamentary Party. If she is defeated then there will have to be a new leadership election at a very…

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Make of these Tweets what you will – but certainly lots of rumours flying about

Make of these Tweets what you will – but certainly lots of rumours flying about

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Confidence vote watch. I know it’s a dangerous game to play and Sir Graham is keeper of the list. But my ERG sources pretty confident now that 48 trigger been breached. Of course Sir Graham won’t announce while PM out of country – and we’ve been here before. But mood hardening — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) December 11, 2018 Masses of speculation about the numbers going in – lots of people hoping the 48 has been reached, but not clear –…

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The betting markets now make it a 61% chance that Brexit won’t happen on March 29th as planned

The betting markets now make it a 61% chance that Brexit won’t happen on March 29th as planned

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Could this make it easier persuading hardline MPs? This morning’s ruling by the ECJ that Article 50 can be revoked unilaterally changes the Brexit Debate at a critical time with MPs due to vote on the deal tomorrow evening. The reaction of punters has been that the UK leaving the EU as planned on March 29th as planned is less likely. Currently it is now a 61% chance that this will not happen. On December 5th the Betfair exchange had…

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Defying the odds Theresa ploughs on

Defying the odds Theresa ploughs on

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The three weeks that could make or break the PM It has been observed many times before that the the prime minister, Mrs May, is a remarkably resilient person able to go forward when all seems doomed. Who would have thought in the aftermath of the 2017 General Election debacle that eighteen months on she would still be in Number 10 and be on the brink of securing agreement on the deal that takes Britain out of the EU? Let…

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Survation-Daily Mail poll finds growing support for TMay’s Brexit deal

Survation-Daily Mail poll finds growing support for TMay’s Brexit deal

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Now more support than oppose The big overnight Brexit news is a Survation poll for the Daily Mail conducted yesterday which is being splashed all over its front page as can be seen above. The big news is that on comparative questions there has been a significant increase in those supporting the deal compared with similar questions which were put by Survation in a poll on November 15th. Clearly this is good news for Theresa May who has started to…

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