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A rather subdued speech by TMay which did not have much substance

A rather subdued speech by TMay which did not have much substance

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TMay at end of speech pic.twitter.com/dJteG9XjSG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 5, 2016 A subdued response to TMay's speech pic.twitter.com/n9NsPR6NJj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 5, 2016 .@theresa_may is joined on stage by husband Philip at the end of her speech. No awkward kiss moment. pic.twitter.com/frHVQFqnhl — Pippa Moraitopoulos (@PippaMoraito) October 5, 2016 One thing’s for sure – she ain’t no Maggie Thatcher The first speech by a newly elected leader is always a big occasion. Its a big platform…

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Remember when devaluations of the pound were a big political deal? No more it seems.

Remember when devaluations of the pound were a big political deal? No more it seems.

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The BREXIT devaluation is hardly being noticed The pound has fared poorly on the foreign exchange markets since TMay’s speech on Sunday setting out her plans to extract the UK from the EU with the aim to invoke Article 50 in March next year. From a peak of about $1.50 to the pound on June 23rd it has now fallen below through the $1.30 market and has touched $1.27. In previous times whenever there’s been such a movement it has…

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TMay needs a sizeable CON majority in Witney to deal with the “unelected PM” taunts

TMay needs a sizeable CON majority in Witney to deal with the “unelected PM” taunts

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A good by-election result will also reinforce her BREXIT strategy It is not TMay’s fault that she ended up as CON leader and PM without having to go through a membership ballot. Once Andrea Leadsom pulled out on that memorable Monday morning there was no further obstacle and she was assured of the leadership and the keys of Number 10. She just avoided several weeks of hustings, TV debates and campaigning which would allowed a much greater scrutiny of her…

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So far no conference or JC re-election bounce for LAB

So far no conference or JC re-election bounce for LAB

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No change at YouGov following events of last week New YouGov hasCON 39LAB 30LD 8UKIP 13Unchanged on last week — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 30, 2016 New findings on TMay TMay's net YouGov "Well/badly" ratings down from +31% on Sep 4 to +24%. By 42% to 26% sample said she "doesn't "care for people like me" — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 30, 2016 YouGov. Is TMay up to the job of being PMYes 52%No 19%40% of GE2015 LAB voters say…

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Why part of my expected Diane James winnings will go on Justine Greening – 20/1 to be next cabinet minster out

Why part of my expected Diane James winnings will go on Justine Greening – 20/1 to be next cabinet minster out

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She looks very uncomfortable defending her boss’s flagship policy A new YouGov poll this morning finds that there has been a less than overwhelming response to TMay’s main domestic policy – the return of grammar schools. 34% say they back the plan; 25% want all existing grammars closed and 20% thought things should stay as they are. The minister with the task of defending this is EdSec, Justine Greening, who looked very uncomfortable in the Commons earlier in the week….

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First post-grammar school phone poll sees TMay’s ratings slip 4% & CON lead down 5%

First post-grammar school phone poll sees TMay’s ratings slip 4% & CON lead down 5%

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CON lead drops 5% in latest Ipsos-MORI. UKIP the main gainers CON 40% -5LAB 34% =UKIP. 9% +3LD 6%.-1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 15, 2016 TMay's net Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings down 4% JC's up 1% pic.twitter.com/ReM0Uhv7MX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 15, 2016 The new PM’s honeymoon appears to be drawing to a close One of the dangers of all polling analysis is to confuse correlation with causation. It is easy to attribute polling changes to the last big…

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