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Category: Theresa May

The size of her majority will determine the sort of PM Theresa May can be and what sort of Brexit and other radicalism we might see, or not see from her

The size of her majority will determine the sort of PM Theresa May can be and what sort of Brexit and other radicalism we might see, or not see from her

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Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will win a majority Despite all the light and heat generated with recent polling, I still expect the Tories to win a majority, unless Nick Timothy decides to add another Nimitz class sized barnacle to the Tory boat between now and June 8th The Tories still lead in the polls, the leadership and economic polling also favour the blue team, but the size of the majority will determine how her…

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Mrs May’s extraordinary ratings honeymoon ended with the manifesto launch

Mrs May’s extraordinary ratings honeymoon ended with the manifesto launch

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New YouGov polling just published had her dipping into negative territory One of the striking features of TMay’s period at Number 10 is how she has maintained positive leadership ratings throughput. Whether pollsters were asking about approval, favourability, satisfaction, or whether she was doing a good or bad job all the numbers were positive from the moment she became PM last July. That run ended in the aftermath of the launch of the controversial General Election manifesto a week last…

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Suddenly this election becomes a lot more difficult to call – maybe not a CON landslide after all

Suddenly this election becomes a lot more difficult to call – maybe not a CON landslide after all

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Sun Will TMay get her landslide or could the result be a lot tighter? The launching of the Conservative manifesto on Thursday has changed the whole narrative of this election. From a situation where the only real outcome that appeared possible was a very substantial Conservative majority, certainly more than 100, we now have the first post manifesto polls with the gap closing sharply. It was very bold of the Prime Minister and her team to include items within the…

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Philip Hammond looks as though he’s for the chop following the June 8th landslide

Philip Hammond looks as though he’s for the chop following the June 8th landslide

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when someone brings up something you did last night pic.twitter.com/4tG2UdUt7B — Esther Webber (@estwebber) May 17, 2017 @iainmartin1 They look like one of those Tory couples in the 1990s snapped at the garden gate after the minister's been in the News of the World — Patrick Kidd (@patrick_kidd) May 17, 2017 What was scheduled to be a Conservative event to attack the LAB manifesto has set off all sorts of speculation about the Chancellor, Philip Hammond. Theresa May was asked…

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Suggesting that the foxhunting ban could be lifted – TMay’s biggest campaign mistake so far

Suggesting that the foxhunting ban could be lifted – TMay’s biggest campaign mistake so far

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Fox hunting is one of those issues which a small number of people on either side of the argument feel very strongly about. It is something could change votes for those with firm views. The poll findings above from today’s ComRes survey for the Daily Mirror shows that across the political divide the ban on foxhunting is strongly supported even by CON voters. So TMay’s comments that she is in favour of hunting and will allow a free vote, assuming…

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Branding the Tories totally around Theresa has made it easier for LAB>UKIP voters to move to the blues

Branding the Tories totally around Theresa has made it easier for LAB>UKIP voters to move to the blues

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Dealing with historic CON “nasty party” perceptions We are not hearing the name Lynton Crosby much at the moment but he is playing the central role in the massive resurgence of the Conservatives that we are currently seeing. He is very much a research-based campaigner and takes a lot of notice about the polls and detailed voter profiling that he is so good at. At GE2015 his masterstroke was to exploit the fears that an EdM LAB government would be…

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We can learn a lot about TMay’s negotiating style from this chain of events when she was Home Secretary

We can learn a lot about TMay’s negotiating style from this chain of events when she was Home Secretary

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2. Once upon a time Theresa was Home Secretary. One day she had to deal with a request from Jordan for Abu's deportation. — David Allen Green (@davidallengreen) May 4, 2017 3. She was not the first Home Secretary to have to deal with this request. But there was a problem. — David Allen Green (@davidallengreen) May 4, 2017 5. And if so, it was not lawfully open to the UK under ECHR to deport anybody if there was prospect…

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Voters want May to negotiate Brexit and not Corbyn and that’s all you need to know

Voters want May to negotiate Brexit and not Corbyn and that’s all you need to know

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A new poll shows that UK adults overwhelmingly trust Theresa May rather than Jeremy Corbyn to negotiate Brexit by a margin of 51% to 13%. All else is secondary writes Keiran Pedley. On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast (see below) I spoke to Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia about events in France and the prospect of a Tory landslide in June. As part of the show, I also unveiled some new polling from our Polling Matters /…

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