Why Weren’t Labour Routed? In common with, I suspect, most readers of this website, I expected Labour to suffer a defeat every bit as bad as 1983, if not worse, on May 6th. This was based partly on Labour’s dire poll ratings, but also on the utter despair that was emanating from the Party. Anonymous Cabinet Ministers were briefing newspapers that they were in trouble in seats like Harrow West, Stretford and Urmston, Streatham, and Wrexham, all of which they…
Did this prevent a Tory majority? It has long been the case that in American elections, incumbency has been an important factor. Until fairly recently, that was not considered to be the case in British elections. While it was acknowledged that Liberal Democrats could build up sizeable personal followings, the general view was that it was a very minor factor in the far more numerous Conservative/Labour contests. This view must now be challenged, judging by the results from May 6th….
What do local by elections tell us? Thursday’s local by-election results were among the worst that I can remember for the Conservatives. The Party lost five out of seven seats it was defending, and saw its vote share fall sharply almost everywhere. By contrast, Labour and the Liberal Democrats performed extremely well, making a net gain of four and two, respectively. Naturally, both parties’ activists have been heartened by this, and Conservatives, judging by the blogs, have been perplexed. Currently,…
Sean looks ahead to London’s locals next May The next London Borough Elections are due in May 2010, probably on the same day as the General Election. In 2006, the Conservatives led strongly, winning fifteen boroughs outright, compared to eight for Labour, and four for the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives’ lead, in terms of vote share, was less impressive, winning 35%, compared to 28% for Labour, and 21% for the Liberal Democrats. If, as seems likely, the Conservatives win a…
Sean Fear says don’t bet on a United Ireland any time soon Irish Nationalism has proved to be the most successful, patient, and subtle form of local nationalism within these Islands. Few people would have bet on an end to British rule in Ireland in 1800, yet by 1900, most tiers of government outside Ulster were de facto controlled by Irish Nationalists, and by 1921, most of the country was independent. The exception of course, was in the Six Counties…
How a Defeat Can Turn into a Rout One feature of the 2005 election was how well-distributed the Labour vote was, in terms of maximising the number of seats won by the Party. A 3% lead produced an overall majority of 66 (or 46, on the new boundaries). One feature of this was that around a quarter of Labour MPs had majorities in the 10-20% range, over the Conservatives, compared to fewer than a fifth who had majorities of less…
Looking Forward to Next Year In all likelihood, next year’s European Elections, and local government elections (mostly for the County Councils, and a few unitary and shadow authorities) will be held simultaneously. Year three of a Parliament is almost invariably the worst year for an incumbent government, in terms of secondary elections, and so Labour can expect to do slightly better next year than this (as they did in 1978, and as the Conservatives did in 1996). Unfortunately for Labour,…
Why I believe that Gordon is Safe It is always dangerous to write about the internal culture of a political party which you are not a member of. Nonetheless, I will stick my neck out and say that I expect Gordon Brown to lead Labour into the next election. That may seem a strange thing to say, on the morning after Labour’s sixth worst by-election result against the Conservatives, and when the Conservatives lead by anything up to 20% in…