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Double blow for SNP in new YouGov Scotland poll: support for independence down & more MP losses projected

Double blow for SNP in new YouGov Scotland poll: support for independence down & more MP losses projected

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New Times YouGov Scotland poll suggests SNP could be DOWN 8 to 27 Westminster seats at next GE. At GE2015 Sturgeon's party won 56 of Scotland's 59 seats https://t.co/GbyYxsinuN pic.twitter.com/PDC394lsdl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 17, 2018 YouGov Times Scotland poll finds Support for independence dwindles https://t.co/GbyYxsinuN pic.twitter.com/uzI4z5RDZb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 17, 2018 But they should still be top party at Holyrood We get so few Scotland only polls these days that when a new one comes out,…

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Survation Scotland poll offers great potential for Corbyn

Survation Scotland poll offers great potential for Corbyn

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Picture: Latest Survation Scottish Westminster VI poll translated into seats Over the last day or so Survation have released their Scotland specific polling, and it presents get potential for Corbyn. Survation say If we input today’s published vote share figures into Baxter’s Scotland model, modelling today’s figures against the vote share the parties achieved at the General Election we can see the effect on seats at play. Although the SNP has essentially the same vote share in today’s polling as…

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The new election reality: The Tories need the SNP to impede LAB’s revival in Scotland

The new election reality: The Tories need the SNP to impede LAB’s revival in Scotland

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Table – Commons Library Why BoJo/Andrea/Phil/David/Amber might be cheering Nicola on The group of constituencies that have seen the most dramatic changes over the past two general elections have been the 59 seats in Scotland. At GE2010 when Labour lost power there were no changes at all north of the border with what was then Gordon Brown’s party retaining all 41 seats that it held on an overall increased Scottish vote share. The SNP had just 6 seats with the…

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Why the Corbynite candidate might not win the Scottish Labour Leadership

Why the Corbynite candidate might not win the Scottish Labour Leadership

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Why the Labour centrists stand a better chance in Scotland – @chris__curtis looks at Scottish Labour's membership https://t.co/WJtd00qpQ2 — YouGov (@YouGov) September 13, 2017 1/ For a start, Scottish Labour members are more centrist than Labour party members in England and Wales https://t.co/WJtd00qpQ2 pic.twitter.com/hTNXaEwrQJ — YouGov (@YouGov) September 13, 2017 2/ Scottish Labour saw less of an influx of new members following the 2015 general election… https://t.co/WJtd00qpQ2 pic.twitter.com/Mg4m5XkLWI — YouGov (@YouGov) September 13, 2017 3/ …this is in part because…

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If CON, LAB, and the SNP each got 30% of the Scottish vote Sturgeon’s party would be down to just 6 MPs

If CON, LAB, and the SNP each got 30% of the Scottish vote Sturgeon’s party would be down to just 6 MPs

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The Times Why the SNP could be in trouble There’s a fascinating analysis in the Times by James Kanagasooriam of Populus of what would happen in Scotland’s 59 seats if the hree main parties there CON, LAB and the SNP each secured 30% of the vote. The projected seat totals are in the chart. The balance of the 59 Scottish seats would go to the LDs which would once again return to its historical position as the third party st…

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Why the Tories, Labour and the LDs should ensure that their next leaders are Scottish

Why the Tories, Labour and the LDs should ensure that their next leaders are Scottish

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Remember Gordon Brown’s LAB and Charles Kennedy’s LDs GE2010 & GE2005 Scottish performances I’ve published the above chart before – the experience of LAB at GE2010 which totally knocked on the head the notion of uniform national swing. We all know that election wasn’t a good one for Gordon Brown’s LAB. They lost power after suffering huge seat losses. There was one part of the UK which bucked the overall trend Scotland. Whereas in England LAB was down more than…

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Tactical voting didn’t win it for the Scottish Tories

Tactical voting didn’t win it for the Scottish Tories

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But genuine gains from the Lib Dems and Labour did. Jeremy Corbyn would be prime minister today if the Scottish Tories had done as badly three weeks ago as they did in 2015 (or any of the previous four elections). Without the dozen gains north of the border, a deal with the DUP wouldn’t have given her the numbers and a deal with anyone else couldn’t have been done. It would have been game over. Given the different nature of…

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The biggest loser. How Nicola Sturgeon did even worse than TMay

The biggest loser. How Nicola Sturgeon did even worse than TMay

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Alastair Meeks who correctly predicted the SNP tsunami of 2015 and that the SNP would lose their majority at Holyrood in 2016 looks over last week’s Scottish general election results. General elections are like forest fires for party leaders.  Within 24 hours of the 2015 election, Ed Mliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage had all resigned.  Paul Nuttall resigned as promptly after last week’s election, after the disappointing but expected loss of UKIP’s sole MP.  Tim Farron resigned before a…

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