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Category: Scotland

Why Jezza should beware of Nicola bearing gifts

Why Jezza should beware of Nicola bearing gifts

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SNP General Election target seats Election Polling LAB’s going to struggle to win the next GE unless there’s a rapid improvement in Scotland Last night Nicola Sturgeon said the SNP would back a Commons no confidence motion against the government if one was tabled by Labour. I’d suggest that Nicola Sturgeon and her team would not be asking for another election now unless it was pretty confident that it would do as well or even better than the 35 Scottish…

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The question supporters of a ‘People’s vote’ need to answer. If another referendum is good enough for the UK, then surely it must be good enough for Scotland?

The question supporters of a ‘People’s vote’ need to answer. If another referendum is good enough for the UK, then surely it must be good enough for Scotland?

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Scotland could become an independent nation without another referendum if Scots elect a large majority of SNP MPs or if the SNP win a majority of the vote in Scotland at a Westminster GE. The SNP won 35 out 59 seats at GE2017 with under 37% of the vote.https://t.co/HAIRzuSZ58 pic.twitter.com/gElzpubu8c — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 2, 2018 Even though I’m someone who considers Brexit the greatest blunder this country has undertaken since appeasement I’m not a fan of another referendum until…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What now for Scotland?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What now for Scotland?

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On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by pollster Mark Diffley to deep dive on the latest round of polls in Scotland. Topics discussed include: 1) How support for Scottish independence has changed over time and the impact that Brexit could have 2) When the next Scottish Independence vote will happen 3) What’s going on in voting intention polls for Holyrood and Westminster and what this means for the main players north of the border…

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Three new Scotland polls find Corbyn’s LAB struggling to recover

Three new Scotland polls find Corbyn’s LAB struggling to recover

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The first public surveys since Corbyn’s August Scottish initiative It might be recalled that in August Corbyn had an extended visit to Scotland with the aim of revitalising the party where it used to be so dominant. Over the past few days we have seen the first published polling since that move Ahead of the SNP conference which is currently going on there have been three new Scotland-only polls – the first since July. All show LAB still in third…

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Ruthless People. The Conservatives lose a leadership contender

Ruthless People. The Conservatives lose a leadership contender

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https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1041072314769502208 I have an announcement to make. Sadly I do not foresee circumstances in which I shall be standing to be leader of the Conservative party. This is no doubt a great loss to them, despite my having no ministerial experience, not being an MP or even being a member of the Conservative party. But they will have to struggle on without me. The bemusement you are, I expect, feeling was not matched when Ruth Davidson similarly ruled herself out….

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Labour’s gains in Scotland were mostly down to the SNP misplacing nearly half a million voters, not because of some great love for Corbyn.

Labour’s gains in Scotland were mostly down to the SNP misplacing nearly half a million voters, not because of some great love for Corbyn.

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The SNP lost nearly half a million votes since the GE2015, Labour only gained fewer than 10,000. For every 48 voters the SNP lost Labour gained only 1 voter. For every 3 voters Lab gained the Scottish Tories gained nearly 100 voters. pic.twitter.com/MpWUQjDkwF — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 11, 2018 Analysing the Corbyn ‘surge’ in Scotland One of the most profitable areas of general election betting in recent elections has been in Scotland, where backing the 2015 SNP tsunami was very…

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If Corbyn’s LAB can make progress in Scotland there are some easy SNP pickings

If Corbyn’s LAB can make progress in Scotland there are some easy SNP pickings

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Table – Commons Library But recent polls suggest LAB will lose Scottish seats The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is in Scotland for a big speech at today’s Edinburgh television festival and more importantly to try to revive the party north of the border where under Ed Miliband in 2015 it was virtually wiped out. Then LAB’s Scottish contingent of MPs was reduced from 41 seats to a single MP. At the general election last year some recovery was made and…

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Scotland and the electoral system: Why winning the next GE is huge ask of LAB

Scotland and the electoral system: Why winning the next GE is huge ask of LAB

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The system bias is now strongly pro-CON We all recall that at the 2005 general election Tony Blair’s Labour won the GB vote by a margin of just 3% but that was enough to give them an overall majority of 64. There was little doubt that the electoral system then favoured the red team. Things have changed dramatically with the collapse of the LDs and the post-IndyRef rise of the SNP. Even without the proposed new boundaries the electoral system…

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