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YouGov poll has Yes leading by 1% – A month ago, no led by 22 – Update Panelbase still has No ahead

YouGov poll has Yes leading by 1% – A month ago, no led by 22 – Update Panelbase still has No ahead

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YouGov #indyref poll is out, YES IS AHEAD (changes since last poll) Exc DKs Yes 51% (+4) No 49% (-4) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 6, 2014 YouGov/ST poll Labour voters switching to Salmond in droves. 35% now back independence up from 18% a month ago — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) September 6, 2014 YouGov/ST poll: Every age group now backing independence except the over 60s. Women, the rich, the poor all switching to Salmond — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) September 6, 2014 As ever…

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David Herdson looks at what happens next if it’s a Yes?

David Herdson looks at what happens next if it’s a Yes?

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Should we be looking at the best bets? The best odds on Yes winning the Scottish referendum a week on Thursday are 11/4 with bookies, or 3.3/1 on Betfair.  Considering that not a single poll has shown Yes ahead and precious few have shown that side within touching distance, those offerings don’t look particularly attractive.  A Yes, however, would be far from the end of the process: there would be consequences for all the parties, their leaders and the 2015…

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After the rumours that a YES lead poll is about to be published Ladbrokes open market on the next Panelbase findings

After the rumours that a YES lead poll is about to be published Ladbrokes open market on the next Panelbase findings

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CORRECTION Ladbrokes odds on next Panelbase IndyRef poll YES 3/1 NO 2/5 TIE 5/1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 4, 2014 This might be a good way to flush out the data. If the odds change sharply or Ladbrokes suspend market then we’ll know something’s happening. Expecting the next "face-to-face" TNS-BMRB Indy Ref poll in the middle of next week. The firm has tended to have bigger NO figures. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 4, 2014 I’ve got a feeling that TNS might do…

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Two weeks to go in Scotland and NO edges up on the exchanges to a 77% chance

Two weeks to go in Scotland and NO edges up on the exchanges to a 77% chance

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Daily Record front page pic.twitter.com/BaRpvXdSRd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 3, 2014 The YES YouGov bounce starts to recede The widely reported news at the start of the week of the dramatic polling changes from YouGov in Scotland led inevitably to the money on the £3m Betfair markets to edge more towards YES. At one stage YES touched being a 26.5% chance but that has now started to recede with NO moving back upwards. The situation is nothing like as…

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Unless Salmond can find a way of turning the oldies in the remaining 14 days independence will be lost

Unless Salmond can find a way of turning the oldies in the remaining 14 days independence will be lost

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Scotland’s battle is generational and the oldies will prevail We all know that the older you are the more likely it is that you’ll be on the electoral register and the greater the chance it is that you’ll actually vote. In the chart above, based on data from the latest Survation IndyRef poll, I’ve tried to show how much NO is dependent on the oldies. The chart looks at the percentage of the overall NO vote that is coming from…

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Take the Ladbrokes 10-11 IndyRef NO victory with turnout under 80% bet

Take the Ladbrokes 10-11 IndyRef NO victory with turnout under 80% bet

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Interesting Ladbrokes http://t.co/tRoY887SzF new #IndyRef betting markets pic.twitter.com/ligF4ObYbk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 26, 2014 The best value punt, surely, for those who think independence will be defeated One of the problems for those wanting to bet on NO in the September 18th Scottish Independence referendum is that prices are so poor. About the best you can get is 1/6 which means that to make a profit of £50 you have to risk £300. A far better wager has just…

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Salmond’s ICM victory in the 2nd IndyRef debate triggers a 2.5% move to YES on Betfair

Salmond’s ICM victory in the 2nd IndyRef debate triggers a 2.5% move to YES on Betfair

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But did punters misinterpret the ICM voting data? Three weeks ago during the first Salmond-Darling TV encounter the first indications that NO was having the best of it came on the Betfair betting exchange where full data on trading is made available instantly and where you are able to track it. In the two hours of the STV hosted confrontation a lot of money was traded and YES moved sharply backwards from the 22% chance position it had reached in…

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Darling versus Salmond – the 2nd leg: Live discussion with regular betting updates

Darling versus Salmond – the 2nd leg: Live discussion with regular betting updates

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#Indyrefdebate Before the STV debate 3 weeks ago YES was rated by punters as 22% chance on Betfair. Now a 13.5% chance — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 #Indyrefdebate At half time punters still make YES a 13.5% chance on Betfair. No change. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 #bbcindyref 30 minutes into the debate and YES remains a 13.5% chance on Betfair. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 As the #Debate opens Betfair punters rate YES's…

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