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Curtice analysis of latest Scottish polling suggests that LAB could be down to 3 seats – the same as the LDs

Curtice analysis of latest Scottish polling suggests that LAB could be down to 3 seats – the same as the LDs

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There’s a great analysis by John Curtice this morning on the latest Scottish polls particularly the one out today from ICM for the Guardian. The whole article is well worth reading but the following is a key part when it comes to making Scottish Westminster seat projections:- “..What, however, this poll brings anew to the evidence is an estimate of how well the parties are doing in different types of seats in Scotland. Inevitably, these estimates are based on relatively…

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It could be that GE2015 is determined by Scottish IndyRef NO voters who are currently undecided about GE15

It could be that GE2015 is determined by Scottish IndyRef NO voters who are currently undecided about GE15

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Chart showing how many more IndyRef NO voters than YES ones are still undecided about GE15 pic.twitter.com/T7yWQBQKpa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 22, 2014 The above stats are tucked on one of the spreadsheets for the latest Scottish poll from Survation for the Daily Record. What is striking is the very different don’t know levels on Westminster voting intention between those who voted YES in the referendum and those who VOTED NO. My reading is that a significant proportion of…

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Will Jim Murphy arrest Labour’s slide in the Scottish polls or will it get worse? Enter the competition

Will Jim Murphy arrest Labour’s slide in the Scottish polls or will it get worse? Enter the competition

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pic.twitter.com/Drgab0QAIL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 14, 2014 What’s the December Record/Survation poll going to show? There’s little doubt that the biggest uncertainty about next May’s general election is what’s going to happen in the 41 seats that Labour currently holds in Scotland. If recent polling turns out to be right they could be left with barely half a dozen of them – an outcome that could have a catastrophic impact on the party’s hope to return to power. It…

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Jim Murphy wins Scottish Labour leadership election with 56% of votes on first round

Jim Murphy wins Scottish Labour leadership election with 56% of votes on first round

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.@ScottishLabour will lead us to a fairer Scotland. #ScotLabLeader pic.twitter.com/KtdCauopFf — Jim Murphy (@jimmurphymp) December 13, 2014 Murphy: "You can't have social justice on George Osborne's levels of spending and tax." — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) December 13, 2014 Fighting acceptance speech showed why SNP didn't want @jimmurphymp to be Labour's leader in Scotland — Kevin Maguire (@Kevin_Maguire) December 13, 2014 I like the way in his first Tweet Murphy has shaped the battle with the SNP – is the prize…

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LAB running just 3% behind SNP in Scotland according to the Populus November aggregate

LAB running just 3% behind SNP in Scotland according to the Populus November aggregate

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But Sturgeon’s party would be one short on seats Following my post yesterday about the woeful lack of polling data from what could be the most critical area of all at GE15, Scotland, a PBer contacted me to point out that Populus has resumed its excellent practice of issuing a full monthly data analysis from the eight or nine online surveys carried out in the previous month. What’s great about this is that you have a very large sample which…

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Survation finds dramatic LAB collapse in Scotland but not on the scale of Ipsos-MORI in October

Survation finds dramatic LAB collapse in Scotland but not on the scale of Ipsos-MORI in October

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What we need now are Scottish constituency polls The second part of the Daily Record Survation poll of Scottish voters was published overnight and finds a big increase in SNP support since the IndyRef with an even bigger drop in the Labour share. It doesn’t really need to be said that the prospect of losing a significant part of its current base of 41 seats North of the border is going to make Labour’s challenge at the General Election that…

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New Survation Scottish poll finds No would have a 6% lead if there was another IndyRef

New Survation Scottish poll finds No would have a 6% lead if there was another IndyRef

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Asked how they'd vote in a new IndyRef 53% of Scots sampled in Survation Record poll said NO – 47%YES — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2014 Survation’s NO lead could be good news for LAB Polls focused solely on Scotland have been very rare since the country voted to remain in the UK on September 18t. So a new one is special particularly because of the apparent impact that the referendum has had on opinion north of the border….

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It could be that front-runner, Jim Murphy, is too divisive a figure to be Scottish LAB leader

It could be that front-runner, Jim Murphy, is too divisive a figure to be Scottish LAB leader

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This is just one poll but look what happened in YouGov's Scotland survey when Jim Murphy named as Scots LAB leader pic.twitter.com/wunVxK1mdr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2014 Unfortunately YouGov didn’t test out other possible contenders apart from Gordon Brown. The issue for Murphy is that he played such a high profile and sometimes controversial role in the NO IndyRef campaign. Maybe he’s a victim of the apparent mood-shift north of the border to the indpendence question. My view…

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