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Category: Scotland

At 10.30 am we’ll find out if the 2nd by-election of the 2015 parliament will be in Orkney and Shetland

At 10.30 am we’ll find out if the 2nd by-election of the 2015 parliament will be in Orkney and Shetland

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UPDATE Carmichael cleared Wednesday's The National front page:Carmichael:Judgment Day#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #scotpapers pic.twitter.com/mVRAzpxg2w — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) December 8, 2015 The election court will announce its decision in the Carmichael case If the case goes against the former Scottish Secretary then the LDs could lose the one seat in Scotland they hold and have to fight a by-election. Based on what happened in the Phil Woolas case in 2010 the Speaker might delay calling a vacancy in the constituency pending the…

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The EU Referendum demographic battlegrounds and boost for SNP in latest Holyrood TNS poll

The EU Referendum demographic battlegrounds and boost for SNP in latest Holyrood TNS poll

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Huffpost EU referendum poll shows battle isYOUNG v OLDMIDDLE CLASS v WORKING CLASS https://t.co/BLuULxNAGi pic.twitter.com/CeOqmo9Oux — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2015 The pollster was James Morris whose firm polled for LAB at GE2015 and has featured in PB/Polling Matters podcasts. His article linked to above is well worth reading. REMAIN had 3% lead but so much, Morris argues, could depend on Cameron. In Scotland the latest TNS face to face survey on next year’s Holyrood elections provides more good…

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The Sunday Trading vote: Dave/Osbo’s problem is not the SNP but the rebellion on the issue by 20 CON MPs

The Sunday Trading vote: Dave/Osbo’s problem is not the SNP but the rebellion on the issue by 20 CON MPs

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Aside from the EU a developing story at Westminster is the decision by the SNP to vote against the planned changes on Sunday trading that Osborne announced in the budget for England and Wales. In Scotland this is a devolved matter with decisions being made at Holyrood. Inevitably this will raise the whole English Votes for English Laws (EVEL) debate because of the devolved nature of such a measure. But before we get too deep into this let’s remember that…

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The future of Scottish LAB and Holyrood 2016: This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast

The future of Scottish LAB and Holyrood 2016: This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast

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> And what about a 2nd IndyRef? On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast Keiran discusses all things Scotland with Kate Devlin of The Herald. How bad are things for Labour? Are the SNP unstoppable in 2016 and when might we see a second independence referendum? Meanwhile, what implications might the upcoming EU referendum have on politics in Scotland and UKIP’s long term prospects in the rest of the UK? You can follow Keiran on twitter at @keiranpedley and…

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One year on from the Indyref: Why Scottish Independence might be in Labour’s best interests

One year on from the Indyref: Why Scottish Independence might be in Labour’s best interests

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Exactly one year after Scotland voted to remain in the United Kingdom it might now be better for Labour if Scotland left. One of the key elements in my opinion that helped the Tories win a majority in May rather than just being the largest party in a hung parliament was their ruthless approach when it came to Ed Miliband and the likelihood of the SNP propping up a Labour led coalition. As the above poster shows, the Tories managed…

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A second poll in a week has the Scots voting for Independence

A second poll in a week has the Scots voting for Independence

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Latest @TNS_UK poll finds 53% of Scots would vote for Independence and 47% would vote to remain in the UK http://t.co/NJOVAaXozq — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 9, 2015 This will be great news for supporters of Scottish Nationalism, though on the Holyrood voting intention questions the SNP see their lead slip but they still retain formidable leads in both categories. In a poll of 1023 adults over 16 in Scotland, 58% of those who expressed a preference would back the SNP in…

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One year ago today we were given a reminder that opinion polls are a snapshot not a prediction

One year ago today we were given a reminder that opinion polls are a snapshot not a prediction

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Latest @Survation / Mail on Sunday poll on the EU and Syria. Has Out/Leave leading via @suttonnick pic.twitter.com/CCpC5LZSFs — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 5, 2015 A year ago today The Sunday Times published a YouGov poll that had Yes ahead in the Scottish Independence referendum campaign. In the history of Politicalbetting.com no other opinion poll has generated quite so much comment and reaction. It wasn’t only PBers who reacted to this poll, it led to the three Westminster Unionist parties offering The…

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