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Category: Referendum

Salmond says he’s ready to put his job on the line and even disband the SNP to help secure a YES vote

Salmond says he’s ready to put his job on the line and even disband the SNP to help secure a YES vote

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Salmond says he'd step down as SNP leader if he thought that would help YES http://t.co/XRpXCGiZil pic.twitter.com/Ojdy5roX6A — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 20, 2014 Just ten days before the first postal ballots arrive In the wake of polling suggesting that Alex Salmond himself might be hurting the YES case it has been made known that the First Minister is saying publicly that if the price of winning independence is his job then he’s ready to step aside. This comes after…

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Even though the last 3 polls have edged a touch to an IndyRef YES the betting is still strongly on NO

Even though the last 3 polls have edged a touch to an IndyRef YES the betting is still strongly on NO

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Apart from a little pre-debate burst the markets remain stable Given the spate of polls over the weekend all showing that YES was edging up I was half-expecting a rally in the YES price on Betfair. It did move a touch but it is now back in the 6.8-7 range which in percentage terms converts to a 14-15% implied probability. The next event that could move things is the BBC TV debate next Monday. Salmond, surely will have learned from…

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Unique all female sample IndyRef poll finds 20% lead for NO

Unique all female sample IndyRef poll finds 20% lead for NO

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New Survation poll of Scotland's women finds big #IndyRef lead for NO pic.twitter.com/dzrn3NLw1s — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 The Survation/Daily Record Scottish women's poll was carried out from Fri – Tues & is first of its kind. After DKs excluded NO 20% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 The front page of Thursday’s Daily Record is dominated by a new Survation poll confined to Scottish women only. This is the first time such a survey has…

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YouGov’s IndyRef NO lead grows even though the firm’s tweaked its methodology to make it more favourable to YES

YouGov’s IndyRef NO lead grows even though the firm’s tweaked its methodology to make it more favourable to YES

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@MSmithsonPB still not helping 😉 pic.twitter.com/wI2FAzgrUz — Steve Sayers (@stevesayers1) August 11, 2014 New YouGov I#ndyRef poll for Sun has NO lead up 1 NO 55%+1 YES -35% DK 10%-1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2014 Excluding don't knows tonight's Sun #IndyRef poll is 61% NO to 39% YES — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2014 Fieldwork straddled last Tuesday’s Darling-Salmond debate There’s a new IndyRef poll out from YouGov – the firm which has generally been showing bigger NO leads and…

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The IndyRef YES price touches rock bottom as punters give their verdict on Salmond’s failure to win Tuesday’s debate

The IndyRef YES price touches rock bottom as punters give their verdict on Salmond’s failure to win Tuesday’s debate

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#IndyRef YES sinking fast on the Betfair exchange. Now down to a 13.5% chance pic.twitter.com/ip9HHJQePT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 7, 2014 The time for recovery is getting shorter The betting on the Scottish IndyRef has moved further to NO during the day even though, as yet, we have yet to see the first full post debate referendum poll. The latest price traded on Betfair as I write, (1420) was at the 7.4 level which converts to a 13.5% chance….

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As the Salmond v Darling debate begins – Ipsos-Mori publishes a poll that gives Salmond and yes a boost

As the Salmond v Darling debate begins – Ipsos-Mori publishes a poll that gives Salmond and yes a boost

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Yes are up 4% and No remains unchanged but since the start of the year No’s lead has fallen from 25 to 14.   Excluding don’t knows UPDATE – POST DEBATE POLLING Victory for Darling A Guardian/ICM poll of viewers has concluded that Darling won the debate by 56pc to 44pc. — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) August 5, 2014 Taking all 512 into account, the result was: Alistair Darling 47% Alex Salmond 37% Don’t Know 15% — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) August 5,…

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Now the betting money moves to an IndyRef YES – up in a week from 14.2% chance to a 20% one

Now the betting money moves to an IndyRef YES – up in a week from 14.2% chance to a 20% one

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1300 on TV #IndyRef debate day. Latest Betfair YES an 18.9% chance pic.twitter.com/QKUfbv86BY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 5, 2014 But can Salmond versus Darling change the fundamentals? Make no mistake – this is a massive day in the Scottish IndyRef Campaign. For tonight the First Minister of Scotland takes on the leader of “Better Together” the former UK chancellor, Alistair Darling, in a two hour long live TV debate. So far this is the only such debate that had…

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Salmond needs a convincing win in Tuesday’s big IndyRef TV debate to move the polls to YES

Salmond needs a convincing win in Tuesday’s big IndyRef TV debate to move the polls to YES

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http://t.co/lBS0VWejYf pic.twitter.com/SZosVsl3uZ Given the static #IndyRef polling the pressure's most on Salmond in Tuesday's TV debate — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 2, 2014 Can he pull off the Holyrood 2011 magic? One of the big moments in Alex Salmond’s career was a big TV debate of Scottish party leaders in late March 2011. At the time the SNP was trailing LAB in the Holyrood polling and it did look as though SLAB was going to return to power. In the debate…

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