AV poll (YouGov) Total % Male % Female % 18-24 % 25-39 % 40-59 % 60+ % ABC1 % C2DE % Support AV 34 40 30 39 34 34 33 37 31 Oppose AV 30 34 26 19 19 33 40 30 29 Not sure 36 26 45 42 47 33 27 33 40 Will it be the C2s, Ds and Es who are decisive? The above data is from the NO2AV YouGov poll that was published over the weekend…
Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording YouGov/Sun No2AV 17/02/11 34 30 Bespoke wording – which might have been changed for this latest poll (see updates below) Populus/Times 18/02/11 41 29 Actual wording on the ballot Angus Reid/ 16/02/11 37 (nc) 21 (+1) Actual wording on the ballot ComRes/Indy on Sunday 10/02/11 36 (+4) 30 (nc) Actual wording on the ballot ICM/Guardian 19/12/10 44 38 Actual wording on the ballot Details of the latest YouGov poll…
Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording Populus/Times 18/02/11 41 29 Actual wording on the ballot Angus Reid/ 16/02/11 37 (nc) 21 (+1) Actual wording on the ballot ComRes/Indy on Sunday 10/02/11 36 (+4) 30 (nc) Actual wording on the ballot YouGov/Sun 07/02/11 38 (+6) 39 (-2) Bespoke wording – referring to the fact that this is a proposal from the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition ICM/Guardian 19/12/10 44 38 Actual wording on the ballot But a different…
The referendum: What are the polls telling us? Looking at the the detailed data from recent AV polls there are two clear trends – the older age groups (55+) are much less likely to support change and Labour voters from the general election are the most undecided. Thursday’s survey for Angus Reid had YES leading with a 37-22 point split. Yet amongst the 55+ group the lead was down to just one point with YES on 34 and NO on…
Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording Angus Reid/ 16/02/11 37 (nc) 22 (+1) Actual wording on the ballot ComRes/Indy on Sunday 10/02/11 36 (+4) 30 (nc) Actual wording on the ballot YouGov/Sun 07/02/11 38 (+6) 39 (-2) Bespoke wording – referring to the fact that this is a proposal from the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition ICM/Guardian 19/12/10 44 38 Actual wording on the ballot NO moves one point closer There a new Angus Reid AV referendum…
Could this determine the May 5 outcome? The general theory of referenda is that by the time people get to voting the issue can become less about what’s on the ballot paper and more about whether they want to make a statement about the government. That’s fine in conventional situations but what about current dilemma for Labour supporters – do they vote NO to punish “the traitor Clegg” or do they vote YES to try to damage the Tories? Given…
Why did their vote collapse in the final division? The big news from Westminster overnight was that the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill received the royal assent at 11.45 pm after the government won the final vote in the upper house overturning previous defeats. This means that the AV referendum will take place as planned on May 5th 2011 and there there will be NO turnout threshold – the last major point of contention. This followed an intensive couple…
Will celebrity endorsement really influence people? With the AV referendum and constituencies bill about to go through its final intensive period at Westminster the YES campaign has unveiled what looks set to be its key strategy in the coming campaign – celebrity endorsement. While the NO side has a line up of political heavyweights such as John Prescott, David Blunkett and Margaret Beckett the YES plan, it appears, is to keep politicians. past and present, completely out of sight. Instead…