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YouGov asked If David Cameron were to step down as leader of the Conservative Party, which of the following do you think would make the best leader? It doesn’t make for good reading for Michael Gove, not too bad Theresa May, and good for Boris. It is interesting, Boris leads Theresa May on every demographic in the graphic above and every age group except on the over 60s, and it’s a tie between Boris and May on females. A couple of caveats, there’s…

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As we can see with this poll, the trend we’ve seen with some other pollsters since the local and European elections, Labour’s lead appears to be widening, UKIP’s support appears to be solid, whilst for the Lib Dems they hit their lowest share with this pollster since July 2013. The fieldwork was before the Newark by-election. The following graph, shows the responses to the following question, Thinking about the current state of the UK economy, would you say it is. The…

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  I’d like to emphasise that this is NOT an exit poll, the fieldwork took place on Monday and Tuesday, the sample size was 678. Since Survation’s poll last week, Conservatives have gained 6 points and UKIP have dropped 1 point, whilst Labour has dropped 5 points from 27 to 22, which reflects the sheer level of effort put in by the Tories, and Labour getting squeezed in a two horse race. It could also be evidence of tactical voting by…

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Ashcroft has CON 22% ahead of LAB: Survation make it 9% There’ve been two Newark by-election polls both of which were started towards the end of last week. The findings can be seen in the chart above. As can be seen the two surveys have pretty similar shares the UKIP – 28% with Survation and 27% with Lord Ashcroft. Where the two diverge is with the LAB and CON shares. Survation has the Tories on 36% while Lord Ashcroft has…

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The EP14 effect – A big boost for the non-Westminster parties The pageantry of the Queen’s Speech and the political debate following it returns those following British politics back to a safe and familiar comfort zone: everything looks much as it always has.  It’s almost as if last month never happened. Yet happen it did and the polling average simply reinforces the message sent in ballot boxes up and down the country: the public continued to move away from the…

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