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Category: Polls

Huge blow for Salmond and the Scottish Independence campaign in first full post TV debate referendum poll

Huge blow for Salmond and the Scottish Independence campaign in first full post TV debate referendum poll

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How the Scottish Daily Mail is reporting its Survation #IndyRef poll showing big post-debate boost for NO pic.twitter.com/1oPFhHSidM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2014 NEW #indyref Survation/Scottish Daily Mail (chg since Aug 3rd) Yes 37% (-3) No 50% (+4) Undec 13% (-1) Ex Undec Yes 43% (-4) No 57% (+4) — Survation (@Survation) August 8, 2014 NO lead moves from 6% to 14% in less than a week A new poll by Survation for the Scottish Daily Mail has just been published and sees a…

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An inconvenient fact for Boris backers is that more people tell pollsters they’ll support him than actually give him their vote

An inconvenient fact for Boris backers is that more people tell pollsters they’ll support him than actually give him their vote

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Why we should be sceptical about all Boris polling For those like me who love watching political battles the ongoing tussle for the Tory leadership between Boris Johnson and George Osborne will be a pleasure to behold. Both have their strong points and both, it is said, have set their hearts on being Dave’s successor. If the Tories don’t hold on in government next May then that intriguing confrontation could be only nine months away. One factor that apparently is…

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As the Salmond v Darling debate begins – Ipsos-Mori publishes a poll that gives Salmond and yes a boost

As the Salmond v Darling debate begins – Ipsos-Mori publishes a poll that gives Salmond and yes a boost

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Yes are up 4% and No remains unchanged but since the start of the year No’s lead has fallen from 25 to 14.   Excluding don’t knows UPDATE – POST DEBATE POLLING Victory for Darling A Guardian/ICM poll of viewers has concluded that Darling won the debate by 56pc to 44pc. — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) August 5, 2014 Taking all 512 into account, the result was: Alistair Darling 47% Alex Salmond 37% Don’t Know 15% — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) August 5,…

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UKIP soar 4 points in this week’s Ashcroft national poll

UKIP soar 4 points in this week’s Ashcroft national poll

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Populus Green total half that of Ashcroft After a period in which UKIP has been edging down across the polls there’ll be some relief at Farage Towers that today’s Lord Ashcroft poll has them at 18% – up 4 on a week ago. The chart shows the comparisons with the Populus online poll published earlier. The bigger picture is that another month has gone by and LAB is maintaining a lead albeit a small one. Twice since the Ashcroft poll…

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Mr Rentoul might not like this but the polling shows that Ed Milband has a special appeal to 2010 LD-LAB switchers

Mr Rentoul might not like this but the polling shows that Ed Milband has a special appeal to 2010 LD-LAB switchers

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In two massive rounds of polling the numbers have barely shifted In an article last month the Indy on Sunday political editor and Blair biographer, John Rentoul, wrote: “My view, and this cannot be based on opinion polls, is that when the voters come to choose they will shy away from the prospect of Miliband as prime minister, just as they shied away from Neil Kinnock in 1992.” But John the unique polling resources that are available to us ahead…

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UKIP drops to its lowest point since February 2013 with Opinium

UKIP drops to its lowest point since February 2013 with Opinium

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For the past two years or so the fortnightly Opinium survey for the Observer has been one that has had some of the highest shares for UKIP – even, at times, into the 20s. This has happened even though Opinium doesn’t prompt for the purples and has them categorised as “some other party”. The firm’s high UKIP shares have been seen in both Westminster voting intention polls and in the Euros. Thus the final Opinium poll ahead of the May…

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The PB July Polling Average: Gravity finally catches up with UKIP

The PB July Polling Average: Gravity finally catches up with UKIP

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Con, Lab and LD all up, but so are Others So perhaps UKIP does need the oxygen of publicity after all.  After recording a record score in June, Farage’s party is the biggest loser in July; indeed, the only loser.  That June figure surprised many who thought that the absence from the papers and TV screens of what’s still in many ways a minor party would inevitably lead to a drop in vote share.  It didn’t then but two months…

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For YouGov trend spotting these are the best figures to watch not the daily polls

For YouGov trend spotting these are the best figures to watch not the daily polls

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The @YouGov monthly average Jan 2013 – June 2014. Figures for July out on Friday. pic.twitter.com/pEBBd634Cu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2014 After the LAB lead dropped from 6% on Monday night to 1% last night there’s been a lot of discussion about the volatility of the firm’s out. In reality, of course, both of this week’s polls have been within the margin of error. The numbers I most look out for are above – the monthly averages which…

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