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Away from the IndyRef – today’s Populus poll sees UKIP up 4% to a record high for the firm

Away from the IndyRef – today’s Populus poll sees UKIP up 4% to a record high for the firm

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This follows an increase in the UKIP share in the ComRes online poll for IoS/S Mirror – published at the weekend and the last YouGov poll have Farage’s party up from its average for the month of about 12% to 14%. We need to see more polls, of course, but the theory was that UKIP would fade after the May Euros and headed for GE2015. Well these numbers suggest that that is not happening. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from…

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Salmond’s ICM victory in the 2nd IndyRef debate triggers a 2.5% move to YES on Betfair

Salmond’s ICM victory in the 2nd IndyRef debate triggers a 2.5% move to YES on Betfair

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But did punters misinterpret the ICM voting data? Three weeks ago during the first Salmond-Darling TV encounter the first indications that NO was having the best of it came on the Betfair betting exchange where full data on trading is made available instantly and where you are able to track it. In the two hours of the STV hosted confrontation a lot of money was traded and YES moved sharply backwards from the 22% chance position it had reached in…

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ComRes online poll sees Lab lead down one to two – But are the Tories losing their toxicity?

ComRes online poll sees Lab lead down one to two – But are the Tories losing their toxicity?

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The ComRes online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out.  Is the Tories’ toxicity no longer an issue? ComRes note “the poll’s Favourability Index finds that the Conservative Party is viewed more favourably than Labour for the first time, suggesting that the Tory brand is now seen as no more “toxic” than the Labour one.” On a net basis, the Blues and Reds are tied, as ever this is just one poll, and we’ll need to…

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David Herdson wonders how much we can trust the referendum polls

David Herdson wonders how much we can trust the referendum polls

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From Prof John Curtice's site – WhatScotsThink most recent #indyref poll of polls pic.twitter.com/BVdRwjNQcu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 22, 2014 How effective are the pollsters with such a one-off event? Knowledge, information and judgement: the past, present and future of effective prediction.  The problem, as far as the Scottish referendum is concerned, is that all three are badly affected by the paucity of precedent.  There have been referendums before, both in Britain and elsewhere, but all have their drawbacks…

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Opinium poll sees UKIP up six

Opinium poll sees UKIP up six

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UKIP sees a six point surge with Opinium   The usual caveats apply, this is but one poll, we need to see other polling to see if this UKIP surge is occurring or not. My own thought is that, this is more a return to the status quo for Opinium with regards to UKIP, their last poll, a fortnight ago, had UKIP down to their lowest point since February 2013, and that didn’t feel right. This UKIP’s highest score with…

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Are we suffering from polling overload?

Are we suffering from polling overload?

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Are we getting too many polls? I know that might be a churlish thing for us polling addicts to say but the below graph shows the comparison of the number of Westminster VI polls conducted by BPC pollsters, in July 2009 and July 2014. We’ve gone from eight polls in July 2009, to forty-four in July 2014, even if we remove the YouGov daily tracker, the number of non You-Gov polls has increased from five to twenty in the same…

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Unique all female sample IndyRef poll finds 20% lead for NO

Unique all female sample IndyRef poll finds 20% lead for NO

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New Survation poll of Scotland's women finds big #IndyRef lead for NO pic.twitter.com/dzrn3NLw1s — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 The Survation/Daily Record Scottish women's poll was carried out from Fri – Tues & is first of its kind. After DKs excluded NO 20% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 The front page of Thursday’s Daily Record is dominated by a new Survation poll confined to Scottish women only. This is the first time such a survey has…

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Ipsos-MORI finds CON and LAB level pegging – but with Boris as leader they’d be 5% ahead

Ipsos-MORI finds CON and LAB level pegging – but with Boris as leader they’d be 5% ahead

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LAB & CON level pegging amongst those certain to vote with @IpsosMORI . LAB 2% ahead with all expressing VI pic.twitter.com/Je4sGsBxGa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 Ipsos-MORI voting intentions if Boris/Osbo/Theresa were leaders. The inevitable Boris boost! pic.twitter.com/0WBx0vyavg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 All leaders up in the August @IpsosMORI leader satisfaction ratings. Maybe cos they're on holiday! pic.twitter.com/ZHjNm38WOt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014