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Remember it was the YouGov polling panel that most exaggerated the last “political earthquake” – the Cleggasm in April 2010

Remember it was the YouGov polling panel that most exaggerated the last “political earthquake” – the Cleggasm in April 2010

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Why I am waiting for TNS-BMRB The big problem we have with last night’s IndyRef polling sensation from YouGov is that so far it has not been supported by other firms. Panelbase, which traditionally has shown YES in its most favourable position came out with no change from from its mid-August IndyRef poll – a 4% lead. Given that most of the latest Panelbase fieldwork coincided with YouGov’s latest YES lead poll then it is indeed surprising that it has…

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After the rumours that a YES lead poll is about to be published Ladbrokes open market on the next Panelbase findings

After the rumours that a YES lead poll is about to be published Ladbrokes open market on the next Panelbase findings

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CORRECTION Ladbrokes odds on next Panelbase IndyRef poll YES 3/1 NO 2/5 TIE 5/1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 4, 2014 This might be a good way to flush out the data. If the odds change sharply or Ladbrokes suspend market then we’ll know something’s happening. Expecting the next "face-to-face" TNS-BMRB Indy Ref poll in the middle of next week. The firm has tended to have bigger NO figures. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 4, 2014 I’ve got a feeling that TNS might do…

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Two weeks to go in Scotland and NO edges up on the exchanges to a 77% chance

Two weeks to go in Scotland and NO edges up on the exchanges to a 77% chance

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Daily Record front page pic.twitter.com/BaRpvXdSRd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 3, 2014 The YES YouGov bounce starts to recede The widely reported news at the start of the week of the dramatic polling changes from YouGov in Scotland led inevitably to the money on the £3m Betfair markets to edge more towards YES. At one stage YES touched being a 26.5% chance but that has now started to recede with NO moving back upwards. The situation is nothing like as…

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GE2015 polling should be put on one side so the focus for next next 2 weeks can be Scotland

GE2015 polling should be put on one side so the focus for next next 2 weeks can be Scotland

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In the last 18 days there've been just 2 IndyRef polls. Scotland decides 2 wks tomorrow. Extraordinary/annoying pic.twitter.com/z51NG5jnm2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 3, 2014 @MSmithsonPB As many polls of Clacton by-elec in last week as of indy ref in last 3 weeks. Priorities? — Rob Ford (England) (@robfordmancs) September 3, 2014 There’s no excuse for the lack of IndyRef polling A fortnight tomorrow a massive election is taking place north of the border. The turnout is expected to be…

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After a day dominated by two big polls IndyRef NO is the biggest betting loser

After a day dominated by two big polls IndyRef NO is the biggest betting loser

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Inevitably with only 15 days left to go before Scotland decides on partition there’s been a lot of betting activity on the referendum outcome with the money going on YES. YouGov’s 6% NO lead, down from 18% in July, has given partition campaigners real hope that what they’ve been campaigning for decades might just conceivably happen. This poll, and the way it has been highlighted by the media, has all the making of a narrative changer even though all it…

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Lord Ashcroft’s Clacton poll shows UKIP 32% ahead

Lord Ashcroft’s Clacton poll shows UKIP 32% ahead

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Clacton poll by @LordAshcroft has UKIP 56% (+56%) Con 24% (-29%) Lab 16% (-9.1%) LD 2% (-10.9%) Others 2% (-75) Changes since the 2010 GE — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 2, 2014 Lord Ashcroft has published his poll on the Clacton by-election, which is to be held on the 9th of October, which is David Cameron’s birthday, like the survation poll, it shows Douglas Carswell comfortably winning for UKIP, the polling on him personally shows why he is course to become…

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The wait for another full IndyRef poll goes on – there’s not been one for nearly a fortnight

The wait for another full IndyRef poll goes on – there’s not been one for nearly a fortnight

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Fieldwork for the last published full #IndyRef poll was completed 13 days ago. See Wiki list pic.twitter.com/A0bvLYzzdi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 28, 2014 Why are there so few Scottish polls? Over the past few days I’ve been repeatedly asked when the next full IndyRef poll will be published and unfortunately I have no idea. The last full poll was by YouGov when fieldwork finished on August 15th – that’s 13 days ago. In the same period we have had…

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Take the Ladbrokes 10-11 IndyRef NO victory with turnout under 80% bet

Take the Ladbrokes 10-11 IndyRef NO victory with turnout under 80% bet

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Interesting Ladbrokes http://t.co/tRoY887SzF new #IndyRef betting markets pic.twitter.com/ligF4ObYbk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 26, 2014 The best value punt, surely, for those who think independence will be defeated One of the problems for those wanting to bet on NO in the September 18th Scottish Independence referendum is that prices are so poor. About the best you can get is 1/6 which means that to make a profit of £50 you have to risk £300. A far better wager has just…

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