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Generally the oldies are the key group for UKIP yet in the ComRes Rochester poll they give Reckless a lead of just 1%

Generally the oldies are the key group for UKIP yet in the ComRes Rochester poll they give Reckless a lead of just 1%

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Most worrying numbers for UKIP from the ComRes Rochester poll: Amongst the oldies Reckless is only 1% ahead pic.twitter.com/jcYxvNYhwO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 Looking more closely at the numbers Let there be no doubt – the UKIP donor funded ComRes Rochester poll was terrible news for the Tories coming as it has just before the party announces the result of its all-postal primary on who should be the candidate. Looking closely at the ComRes data two demographic…

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On the eve of the CON primary result a UKIP donor funded ComRes Rochester poll has the purples 13% ahead

On the eve of the CON primary result a UKIP donor funded ComRes Rochester poll has the purples 13% ahead

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UKIP campaign HQ Rochester pic.twitter.com/dGnzE4E8SN — PolPics (@PolPics) October 19, 2014 UKIP 43: CON 30: LAB 21: LD 3: GRN 2 Th big by-election news tonight which has already been anticipated by the betting markets is a new UKIP donor funded poll of Rochester & Strood in the Daily Express. The news is not good for the Tories and very good for the purples. The poll has Farage’s party in a better position than it was in the Mail/Survation poll…

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As UKIP surges Ipsos-MORI finds that support for wanting to stay in the EU is at a 23 year high

As UKIP surges Ipsos-MORI finds that support for wanting to stay in the EU is at a 23 year high

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Latest "leave or remain" the EU finding from Ipsos-MORI has remain with 20% lead pic.twitter.com/4fuJ0kHiau — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2014 The Ipsos-MORI "should we leave/stay in the EU" findings reaches a 23 year high for remain pic.twitter.com/ghr6lwUUU6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2014 Could the Kippers be giving the BOOers a bad name? As I often say one of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that it has been carrying out political polls in the UK for…

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The best guide to GE15 will come from single constituency polls NOT the national surveys and the seat calculators

The best guide to GE15 will come from single constituency polls NOT the national surveys and the seat calculators

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At what level majority will Lord A find the Tories holding on in the marginals? In the past year we’ve seen a revolution in British political polling which is totally transforming the way wrong look at General Elections. Rather than the focus being on national polls from which we can project seat numbers we are seeing an avalanche of constituency polls coming mostly from Lord Ashcroft and initiatives funded by wealthy UKIP donors. These are serious polls of single constituencies…

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Polling analysis: Rochester is a far far bigger challenge for UKIP than Clacton

Polling analysis: Rochester is a far far bigger challenge for UKIP than Clacton

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UKIP is not winning the 2010 Tory vote like it did in Clacton Reckless has nothing like the personal support as Carswell The outcome could be on a knife-edge I’ve become totally absorbed by the Rochester by-election the outcome of which, either way, will have a dramatic affect on the political environment in the six months to the May 7th general election. Over the weekend I’ve had a look again at the only poll so far which was from Survation….

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When ComRes tested impact of prompting for UKIP the views of women barely changed. Male support however jumped by 8%

When ComRes tested impact of prompting for UKIP the views of women barely changed. Male support however jumped by 8%

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Two pollsters, three polls, and UKIP shares between 16% and 24% With all eyes on UKIP polling shares following their by election successes the online survey by ComRes for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror carried out a test to see whether, as many purple enthusiasts argue, their shares are understated by firms that don’t specifically prompt for the party. So the ComRes sample was split in two with the first using the conventional approach and the second including…

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Polling analysis: UKIP’s hurting CON even more in the marginals than it was 2 months ago

Polling analysis: UKIP’s hurting CON even more in the marginals than it was 2 months ago

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Latest churn figures from main parties to Farage’s One of the great things about the Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is the sheer scale of it and the size of the overall samples. He tends to operate with samples of 1,000 meaning that the latest batch involved talking on the phone to a total of 11,002 people which is the equivalent to almost a year’s worth of ICM or Ipsos-MORI polls. The benefit is that the aggregate data from all the…

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The polling’s not all good for UKIP: See this worrying data for Farage’s party from YouGov and Ipsos-MORI

The polling’s not all good for UKIP: See this worrying data for Farage’s party from YouGov and Ipsos-MORI

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YouGov polling for the @TheEconomist on perceptions of UKIP. http://t.co/htbjsweQWI pic.twitter.com/stPsFNlqjj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 17, 2014 Last month Ipsos-MORI had them the most disliked & least liked party Could we be seeing the basis for anti-purple tactical voting? In a week that has been dominated by positive GE15 voting numbers for YouGov there’s some other data from firm for the Economist, see top panel, that might make uncomfortable reading. The way the party is perceived by a representative sample…

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