UKIP campaign HQ Rochester pic.twitter.com/dGnzE4E8SN
— PolPics (@PolPics) October 19, 2014
UKIP 43: CON 30: LAB 21: LD 3: GRN 2
Th big by-election news tonight which has already been anticipated by the betting markets is a new UKIP donor funded poll of Rochester & Strood in the Daily Express.
The news is not good for the Tories and very good for the purples. The poll has Farage’s party in a better position than it was in the Mail/Survation poll two weeks ago when UKIP had a 9% lead.
Amongst 2010 CON voters ComRes found 57% supporting the blues and 40% Reckless – almost exactly the same proportion as in the earlier Survation poll. Reckless is relying for his support on ex-LAB & LD voters. But the biggest source of new support for UKIP are those who didn’t vote at the last general election with 28% of the UKIP share coming from them.
Some other pollsters would mark the views of this group down sharply because non-voting support from the previous general election is the most flakey of all.
This is how the non-2010 voters split.
Clearly this puts the purples in a strong position just four weeks from polling day and there’ll be a huge amount of pressure on whoever wins the primary to claw some of this back.
With four weeks to go I’m expecting a lot of polling. Eagerly awaited is a survey from Lord Ashcroft.