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UPDATED: Marf on the Copenhagen shootings and the day’s 1st 2 polls – ICM CON 4% ahead

UPDATED: Marf on the Copenhagen shootings and the day’s 1st 2 polls – ICM CON 4% ahead

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Marf on the Copenhagen shootings pic.twitter.com/gUxVyMOQAU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015 CON jump 6% in most sensational poll of 2015 Breakdown of ICM Guardian poll pic.twitter.com/sVyGcVPT0y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015 Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 31 (-), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 15 (+1), Others 11 (-1). Tables here: http://t.co/7TPAFeVZw3 — Populus (@PopulusPolls) February 16, 2015 NHS remains most important issue according to ICM/Guardian poll. Just 4% said Europe. . pic.twitter.com/zSpz8Mvhkx — Mike Smithson…

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Big question in blue-yellow battles is how much you can trust the Ashcroft 2 stage seat specific questioning

Big question in blue-yellow battles is how much you can trust the Ashcroft 2 stage seat specific questioning

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Illuminating observations from the inventor – UKPR’s Anthony Wells There’s a big debate going on over the Lord Ashcroft style two stage questioning in his single constituency polls of which there have been more than 150. It will be recalled that after asking the standard voting question he puts a second one suggesting that those sampled focus on their own seat and the candidates who might stand. The numbers that are highlighted are the responses to the latter not the…

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Labour are currently the largest recipients of tactical voting

Labour are currently the largest recipients of tactical voting

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Labour are currently the largest recipient of tactical voting via @IpsosMORI pic.twitter.com/PcWPbxY7El — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 15, 2015 As part of this month’s Ipsos-Mori political monitor found that 22% of Lab voters saying they do so to keep another party out, rather than because the party represents their views. For the Tories the figure is 10%, for UKIP it is 9%and the Liberal Democrat’s it is 7%. Ipsos-More note “In previous years, the Liberal Democrats were most likely to say they…

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UPDATED: Opinium, ComRes and YoGov all have LAB retaining its leads

UPDATED: Opinium, ComRes and YoGov all have LAB retaining its leads

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The latest YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has CON 32 LAB 35 LD 7 UKIP 15 GRN 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2015 LAB retains 2% lead in latest Opinium poll for the Observer LAB 35+1 CON 33+1 LD 8+1 UKIP 14-1 GRN 6-2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2015 ComRes IoS./S Mirror poll also has LAB 2 ahead CON 32% -1 LAB  34%= LD  7% = UKIP 16% -2 GRN  4% +1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2015 UKIP's share seems to have declined in most recent…

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At this stage in 2010 bullish punters pushed the betting to a CON majority of 36 completely in defiance of the polling

At this stage in 2010 bullish punters pushed the betting to a CON majority of 36 completely in defiance of the polling

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3 months before 2010 election betting markets predicted Con maj 36 http://t.co/82hyWOedHW pic.twitter.com/wJNzaTFY06 Thx @MikeSmithsonPB — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) February 13, 2015 Are CON punters being grossly optimistic yet again? Last night John Rentoul asked me what had happened in the betting at this stage of the 2010 campaign and I dug up the above – an index that I created and reported regularly on here based on the spread betting and Betfair line prices. At this stage in the…

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CON to LAB swing in 40 key marginals moves to 4.5% according to new ComRes ITV poll

CON to LAB swing in 40 key marginals moves to 4.5% according to new ComRes ITV poll

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Tonight's ComRes ITV News poll of 40 key marginal represents CON to LAB swing of 4.5% pic.twitter.com/98KhgExcMP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 13, 2015 New ComRes poll of 40 most marg Lab/Con seats: Con 31% (NC), Lab 40% (+1), LD 8% (+1), UKIP 15% (-3), Green 5% (+1). In 2010, Con/Lab on 37% — Stephen Tall (@stephentall) February 13, 2015 Just 12% tell ComRes ITV marginals poll that the key factor in voting choice is which party leader will make…

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Back at GE2010 polls from the second half of Feb 2010 proved to be pretty good pointers to the result

Back at GE2010 polls from the second half of Feb 2010 proved to be pretty good pointers to the result

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Will the same be repeated this May? With so many polls coming out as we get closer to the big day I thought it might be useful to check back at the regular pollsters from the last election to see how their surveys from the second half of February compared with the actual result. The YouGov daily poll started at this time and for that I have taken and average. I have only included the established pollsters from then which…

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UKIP drop into single figures, LDs 6% as LAB move to 36% in this month’s Ipsos-MORI poll

UKIP drop into single figures, LDs 6% as LAB move to 36% in this month’s Ipsos-MORI poll

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LAB @IpsosMORI lead 3% amongst all those giving voting intention. See chart pic.twitter.com/2AGeX5l9sz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 12, 2015 Feb @IpsosMORI poll Farage biggest loser on month in the satisfaction ratings pic.twitter.com/bnsz3oMq8e — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 12, 2015 LAB 36% share with @IpsosMORI is the highest the party has seen since April last year. In both Nov & Dec 2014 the firm had CON 3% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 12, 2015 Unlike other pollsters @IpsosMORI headline…

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