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One thing we can now start to say – the Tories haven’t taken a hit over the debates saga

One thing we can now start to say – the Tories haven’t taken a hit over the debates saga

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Tories move to a 64% chance of winning most seats on Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/cvOGXUnbdz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 10, 2015 All published polls since start of month pic.twitter.com/GAhfqPNumI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 10, 2015 Only fly in the ointment for the blues – Populus Those who were concluding that Dave and the blue team would not be damaged by the debates issue now have an answer. With both Ashcroft and latest showing 4% leads the strong Tory start…

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The Monday polls so far: LAB 1% ahead with Populus but 4% behind with Ashcroft

The Monday polls so far: LAB 1% ahead with Populus but 4% behind with Ashcroft

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Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (=), Con 32 (+1), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-1), GRN 6 (+1), — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2015 Trend chart with @LordAshcroft 's latest poll pic.twitter.com/RjRI0Vo4gW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2015 Big driver of CON position in latest Ashcroft poll is higher certainty to vote. Before turnout filter LAB & CON almost level pegging — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2015 Only 2 of @LordAscroft polls this year have had LAB…

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How the polls performed the last time a charismatic, Eton-educated, incumbent stood in a major election

How the polls performed the last time a charismatic, Eton-educated, incumbent stood in a major election

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Boris was net 30 points ahead of Ken in the leader ratings This is the first in a short series of posts looking at polling that highlights areas that could cause problems on May 7th. This one concerns the strength of the Labour brand when everything seemed lost. Everybody knows that Boris pulled off a spectacular victory in the May 2012 London Mayoral Election when things were going badly for his party nationally. Yet what has been largely forgotten is…

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Lord Ashcroft’s 160+ seat polls are already making it a very different election and could impact on results

Lord Ashcroft’s 160+ seat polls are already making it a very different election and could impact on results

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For potential tactical voters they provide a guide what to do One of the many unique features of May 7th is the polling. We’ve never had so much and we’ve never seen so many studies of individual battlegrounds. Lord Ashcroft alone has produced more than 160 of them and there is hardly a key seat where we haven’t got any information. At GE2010, when there were perhaps half a dozen such polls, the Greens’ victory in Brighton Pavillion showed how…

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Does this explain the Tory optimism about May

Does this explain the Tory optimism about May

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“Labour voters are also generally lukewarm about their leader in a way that Conservatives are not about theirs.” – Opinium The above chart shows how well Dave and badly Ed do among their own supporters, as other pollsters generally find as well. I’m of the view, that Ed’s poor ratings are priced into the voting intention, and that the voting intention is largely correct. We’re going to find out in nine weeks time if it is priced in or not….

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The latest batch of Ashcroft marginals polling finds some good news for Labour in the Con/Lab Marginals

The latest batch of Ashcroft marginals polling finds some good news for Labour in the Con/Lab Marginals

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But the SNP surge continues as even Gordon Brown and Charles Kennedy’s seats goes to the SNP but Jim Murphy holds on. Labour will be delighted that the swing to then in the English marginals is more than the national polling implies .@LordAshcroft says very bad news for Scottish Labour but looks like "@jimmurphymp will buck the trend and hang on" pic.twitter.com/zgkPynwNtr — Marcus A. Roberts (@marcusaroberts) March 4, 2015 With a 1% lead @LordAshcroft has @Jessica_Asato winning Norwich North…

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Some interesting poll findings

Some interesting poll findings

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As we await the next batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling at 5pm, here’s some appetising hors d’oeuvre from other pollsters appear that go against what most people perceive to be true. An Ipsos-Mori polling analysis in the Guardian finds Election 2015: support for Ukip among Gen Y voters doubles in a year. Think younger voters don’t like Nigel Farage? Think again – Ukip is polling nearly as well as the Green party and is almost level with the Lib Dems…

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Whatever could this mean? – Updated with the figures

Whatever could this mean? – Updated with the figures

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The second interesting daily @YouGov poll in a row just in. Movement for two different parties. Result on http://t.co/U0QFiRQF8U at 10.30pm. — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) March 3, 2015 The next twenty-four hours is going to be fascinating, as well as this YouGov poll, at 5pm on Wednesday, Lord Ashcroft publishes his latest batch of constituency polling from both England and Scotland as we approach the General Election campaign proper starts shortly and we’re 15 days away from possibly the…

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