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With the formal hostilities due to start on Thursday with the Channel 4/Sky News event the British Election Study has new polling that looks at the CON record on key policies. Though BES data shows the Tories are unlikely to lose voters during the campaign, their ability to build support could be limited by discontent with some areas of policy as we enter the election campaign. BES Co-Director Professor Jane Green from The University of Manchester told a Political Studies…

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This from last week’s Ipsos-MORI poll What’ll Dave going at some point do to Lynton’s campaign plan? The latest Ipsos-MORI like leader like party ratings illustrate what is very common when it comes to public views of Cameron and his party: Invariably unlike the other party leaders he is a net asset securing better numbers than the Conservative party. In fact it is often quipped that what voters want is a LAB government led by David Cameron. So yesterday’s comments…

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This week's @LordAshcroft phone poll has CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 23, 2015 More detailed findings from @LordAshcroft poll pic.twitter.com/NrvOvXnXCv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 23, 2015 Before Xmas @LordAshcroft national poll had UKIP on 19%. Today just 12%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 23, 2015 @LordAshcroft poll ENGLAND ONLY shares CON 36 LAB 33 LD 8 UKIP 14 GN 6 So a 4.7% CON to LAB swing since GE10 on UNS = 50 LAB English gains…

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LAB 2% ahead in latest YouGov poll for S Times — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 21, 2015 It’s no change with Survation for Mail on Sunday CON 30%+1 LAB 34%+1 LD 10%= UKIP 17%-2 SNP 4%= GRE 3%+1 A leaders’ question that’s unique: Agincourt with impending 600th anniversay Budget boost for Tories from Opinium/Observer poll Revised trend chart from Opinium pic.twitter.com/qh2DnGguHm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 21, 2015 @tobyhelm given design effects and margin of error i'd want to see…

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No sign of any progress for LAB in Scotland. Wiki list of polls pic.twitter.com/KgYHxAFBZr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 20, 2015 Because of the timing of counts the SNP could be ahead nationally at 2am on election night Overnight we had not one but two new Survation polls from Scotland. One was for Unison and the other was the regular survey for the Daily Record. The figures are in the Wiki table above and as can be seen, Labour remains…

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This is the main driver of the bigger CON to LAB swing in the marginals I was on a train heading to London to speak at a conference when Lord Ashcroft’s latest CON-LAB battleground polling was published yesterday and have only now got round to looking at the detail. The most striking feature and a big driver of Labour’s strength in the seats polled is how well the party is doing in attracting and retaining 2010 LD to LAB switchers….

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The latest batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is out, and will bring bring great cheer to Labour and much disappointment to the Tories, who would have hoped the national polling trends would feed into the marginals. Lord Ashcroft says My findings this time suggest the better national news for the Conservatives is not spread evenly across the battleground. In only one of the seats, Worcester, has a Labour lead turned into a Tory one. In Croydon Central, the Labour…

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