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The YouGov poll at this point in the 2010 race got the CON-LAB margin almost exactly right – should we be expecting the same of the latest poll?

The YouGov poll at this point in the 2010 race got the CON-LAB margin almost exactly right – should we be expecting the same of the latest poll?

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The 2010 YouGov poll two days before GE10 got the LAB CON margin almost spot on. A good precedent for GE15? pic.twitter.com/t7h1G64m3a — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2015 It’s back to level-pegging in latest poll After a spate of 1% LAB or CON leads the latest YouGov Sun poll breaks the pattern – level peggingCON 33LAB 33 LD 10 UKIP 12GRN 5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 4, 2015 On Betfair CON most seats is an 82% chance CON…

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Survation’s ballot paper voting responses raise questions about incumbency boosts on which the Tories are relying so much

Survation’s ballot paper voting responses raise questions about incumbency boosts on which the Tories are relying so much

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Are CON incumbents really going to get a bonus? In its latest poll for the Mail on Sunday Survation added a new dimension – a voting question based on the precise ballot paper that each of the 2100 people sampled will actually fill in on Thursday or have already done so with postal votes. This was an online poll and the replica ballot papers are generated for each participant by their post code. If there is going to be a…

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John Curtice on the exit poll

John Curtice on the exit poll

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John Curtice on the forthcoming exit poll http://t.co/887u4v1Yw3 pic.twitter.com/jjId8N7T5f — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 3, 2015 Just after 10pm on Thursday, the exit poll for the BBC/ITV/Sky News will be published, at the last two elections, it has been virtually spot on. However this year, it might be more difficult, as they are also going to give UKIP and SNP seat totals as the era of three party politics has come to an end. From the article John Curtice has said…

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The big polling night continues with a Marf cartoon on Ed and the SNP

The big polling night continues with a Marf cartoon on Ed and the SNP

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A couple of surveys at least still to come Tonight we saw the last of Lord Ashcroft constituency polls which have added enormously to this election. All told his polling has covered nearly 250k separate phone interviews which is just colossal. There are some more polls to come tonight. I’m sort of expecting a new ComRes phone poll for the Mail and maybe one more as well as the usual YouGov. Tonight's YouGov/Sun poll: LAB retains its slender 1% lead….

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The Friday afternoon/evening pollercoaster – rolling thread

The Friday afternoon/evening pollercoaster – rolling thread

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Once again LAB voter contact running at higher level than CON in every seat – pattern we've seen throughout campaign pic.twitter.com/2JS13SyEcB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2015 LAB moves back sharply in Survation/Mirror poll.See Chart pic.twitter.com/KOH53O0zvx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2015 LAB take 2% lead with Survation/Mirror. Last wk 4% behind LAB 34% (+5); CON 33% (NC); UKIP 16% (-2); LD 9% (-1); SNP 4% (NC); GRE 3% (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2015 @LordAshcroft…

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2010 LDs are splitting much more to LAB in the CON-held marginals than they are in standard national polling

2010 LDs are splitting much more to LAB in the CON-held marginals than they are in standard national polling

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This could offset the CON first term incumbency factor I did some analysis earlier in the week on the way the LD vote was splitting comparing national with marginals polling. This came out before the latest ComRes/Mail poll and the above updates my previous comparisons. What is very striking is the greater propensity of 2010 LDs to split to LAB in the marginals polling compared with the national survey. For only the 2nd time this year CON & LAB level-pegging…

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The whole narrative of this campaign would have been very different if YouGov had been a weekly poll not a daily one

The whole narrative of this campaign would have been very different if YouGov had been a weekly poll not a daily one

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Figures from tonight's YouGov/Sun poll: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015 YouGov's polling since short campaign started – last night not included pic.twitter.com/RPT8gUAkNd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2015 For poll watchers there’s a ritual every night at 10.30pm. We go into Twitter an wait for the Tweet from the Sun politics team giving the headline numbers from the latest YouGov daily poll findings. Fieldwork for the surveys…

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