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Category: Polls

Pollsters should follow Ipsos MORI’s 2008 example and not rush to resume general election surveys

Pollsters should follow Ipsos MORI’s 2008 example and not rush to resume general election surveys

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It had had a 4% Ken lead for mayor – Boris finished up 6% ahead Back in 2008 at the first Boris-Ken battle the opinion polls became an issue during the campaign. YouGov was showing Boris leads close to what happened (a 6.2% Johnson lead) while Ipsos, in its final poll had Ken 3% ahead. The polling led to a lot of attacks on YouGov from Ken and the Labour camp but in the end the online firm was vindicated….

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GE2015: The Inquest. A special podcast in collaboration with Polling Matters

GE2015: The Inquest. A special podcast in collaboration with Polling Matters

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One of the great developments of the campaign has been the appearance of many new online resources for analysis and discussion. One of these has been the excellent Polling Matters created by Keiran Pedley of pollster GFK. This afternoon, in collaboration with Polling Matters, we have a special podcast featuring some of the key players. Keiran spent the last week speaking to several leading experts in the polling industry including Professor John Curtice, Lord Foulkes, Damian Lyons Lowe of Survation,…

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The real answer to the “shy Tories” phenomenon is Boris

The real answer to the “shy Tories” phenomenon is Boris

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In 2012 many more said they’d vote for him than actually did A lot has been written in the past week about so-called “shy Tories” who are reluctant to tell pollsters on the phone or when they complete online questionnaires that they’ll support the blues. Yet look at what happened in 2012 when Boris was re-elected as mayor of London – the opposite happened. Every single pollsters had Boris lead at a level bigger than it was. Of the firms…

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What went wrong with the polling? More starts to emerge but few answers

What went wrong with the polling? More starts to emerge but few answers

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Labour's private pollsters had party in much worse position than public polls. http://t.co/hRSjDD5Sof pic.twitter.com/QkoNMHccme — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 12, 2015 In this News Statesman article James Morris, from Labour’s US-based pollster GQR, explain how its approach was different and is likely to produce far fewer don’t knows which, it is argued, add to accuracy. He also notes that I was one of those interviewed. “The main difference between our polls and the newspaper polls is that we don’t ask…

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So were there really shy Kippers?

So were there really shy Kippers?

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Prior to the election, there was speculation, the pollsters weren’t picking up “Shy Kippers”. Though every single phone poll underestimated UKIP, it was within an acceptable amount, and the largest errors were from the online polls from Panelbase and Survation, who overestimated UKIP by 3%. The polls that underestimated UKIP, on average, underestimated UKIP by 1.6%, and the polls that overestimated, did so on average by 1.9%. The online pollsters overestimated UKIP by 0.8% and the phone underestimated UKIP by 1.7%….

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Our GE15 prediction competition: results + chart showing CON leads % -/+ recorded in final polls

Our GE15 prediction competition: results + chart showing CON leads % -/+ recorded in final polls

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Full chart with all entries here Sporting Index, which is sponsoring PB’s General Election coverage, is providing a competition prize of £200, payable into the winner’s SPIN account. If the winner does not have an account then he/she will have to open one to receive the prize. This is only open to people over the age of 18. In the next few days the firm will have a bigger range of GE2015 markets up. On top of that there will…

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Ex-ICM boss & political polling pioneer, Nick Sparrow, on the 2015 polling “debacle”

Ex-ICM boss & political polling pioneer, Nick Sparrow, on the 2015 polling “debacle”

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For the Pollsters, it’s 1992 all over again. The pollsters agreed, it was too close to call, a hung parliament a near certainty. There were even signs in some polls of a swing to Labour over the last few hours and days. Ed looked increasingly confident, Dave a bit dejected. The pollsters polled as late as possible to catch late swing. YouGov re-contacted their final poll sample and found no reason to change their prediction. Overall the pollsters predicted the…

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