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Category: Polls

The GE2015 polls weren’t wrong – we were just looking at the wrong numbers

The GE2015 polls weren’t wrong – we were just looking at the wrong numbers

Leader ratings have proved a far better guide to election outcomes A month today, on January 19th, the investigation into what went wrong with the general election polling will be announcing its findings at a special event in London. No doubt all sorts of tweaks will come out of it but the main factor. I’d argue, is that we (and I include myself in that) paid far far too much attention to the voting intention numbers. In almost every case…

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The pre-Xmas polling rush continues with poor Corbyn Ipsos MORI ratings but LAB now just 4% behind CON with ComRes

The pre-Xmas polling rush continues with poor Corbyn Ipsos MORI ratings but LAB now just 4% behind CON with ComRes

Chart showing latest @IpsosMORI leader satisfaction ratings pic.twitter.com/P4d6CvaLy9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2015 Sharpish drop in Corybn's @IpsosMORI satisfaction ratings amongst LAB voters pic.twitter.com/J0ANmElSjr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2015 Via @robfordmancs . Net MORI satisfaction ratings after 3 monthsFoot -21Kinnock + 13Smith + 12Blair +27 Brown + 18Ed M + 1 Corbyn -17 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2015 LAB gets closer in Mail ComRes phone pollCon 37 (-3) Lab 33 (+4) UKIP 11 (nc)…

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The great EURef phone/online polling divide continues as two new phone polls have 18-21% REMAIN leads

The great EURef phone/online polling divide continues as two new phone polls have 18-21% REMAIN leads

Revised table of latest #EURef polling showing the 2 phone polls published this morning. pic.twitter.com/uk9ilG1Kb9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2015 The oldies seem to respond most differently on the phone This morning we’ve got the EU referendum phone polls for two months and as can be seen in the table, they have numbers which are totally out of line with with all the online surveys. First out was ComRes with its poll for Open Europe followed by Ipsos…

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This is not America

This is not America

Alastair Meeks looks at the politics of statistics Every few days, a twitter account run by the Guardian called @thecounted tweets the cumulative total of deaths at the hands of the police.  The number is shocking.  As at 10 December, the total stood at 1061 for the calendar year 2015.  As often as not Guardian News retweets this information to its predominantly UK-based followers.  The impression given, presumably deliberately, is of a police force that is too trigger-happy by far….

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In a 140 charcacter tweet Glen O’Hara sums up the YouGov investigation into its GE2015 polling fail

In a 140 charcacter tweet Glen O’Hara sums up the YouGov investigation into its GE2015 polling fail

Basically, too many pol engaged and/ or young people as a share of the sample. A bit like listening to Twitter. https://t.co/xoRZf2Klo9 — Glen O'Hara (@gsoh31) December 7, 2015 The big polling news tonight has been the publication of YouGov’s own inquiry into what went wrong. There’s a good summary by the firm’s Anthony Wells on his blog UK Polling report here. A real problem that has been mentioned many times before is that those who take part in political…

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Do 1 in 5 British Muslims really ‘sympathise with Jihadis’?

Do 1 in 5 British Muslims really ‘sympathise with Jihadis’?

Keiran Pedley looks at this morning’s front page of The Sun and argues that we should always check the small print when reading opinion polls. As someone that has spent most of his professional life reading opinion polls I have always enjoyed this scene from Yes Minister where Sir Humphrey explains to Bernard how to rig an opinion poll. It’s a funny scene but does demonstrate a pretty important point that all pollsters know – opinion poll results are often as much about how…

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Corbyn slumps to new YouGov leader ratings low while latest Survation #EUREF polling has REMAIN back in the lead

Corbyn slumps to new YouGov leader ratings low while latest Survation #EUREF polling has REMAIN back in the lead

Even EdM had net positives at this stage It used to be that YouGov published its well/badly party leader ratings on a weekly basis. Now in this post-GE2015 polling disaster era we only get them once a month. The latest, for November, is just out for the Times and the figures continue to decline for Mr. Corbyn. Of those polled 52% said he was doing badly with 30% saying well. To put that into context on November 19th 2010 Ed…

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Pre “adjustment” ICM has LAB and CON level-pegging – after it the Tories are 6% ahead

Pre “adjustment” ICM has LAB and CON level-pegging – after it the Tories are 6% ahead

Before ICM's adjustment for don't knows+refusers LAB had small lead. The headline figures were CON lead of 6% pic.twitter.com/RnhkpXqkvn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 17, 2015 After “adjustment” Con 39 (+1) Lab 33 (-1) UKIP 12 (+1) LD 7 (nc) In a note of explanation the pollster observes: It should be noted, however, that the raw data shows substantive change which our newly strengthened adjustment process disguises. Based on (pre-adjusted) turnout weighted data, the parties are neck and neck, which…

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