EURef Myth-busting: laying to death some persistent memes
Embed from Getty Images Myth 1: Cameron’s deal has been unexpectedly badly received Answer: NO Ipsos-MORI polled the public in November 2014 asking whether David Cameron would get a good deal for Britain in Europe. 69% said that they were either not at all confident or not very confident that he would do. Only 26% were either fairly confident or very confident. How in fact has the outline deal gone down? Well, almost exactly in line with this. YouGov polled…
As well as a unique hair-style Trump has another thing in common with Boris – being overstated in the polls
Real Clear Politics All but one of the Iowa pollsters had inflated Trump numbers: All had deflated ones for Cruz and Rubio One of the things that I’ve written about before here is that Boris gets over-stated by the polls when tested against real election results. It happened to quite a degree at the last London mayoral election and we saw a similar pattern overnight in the results from Iowa. The table above from Real Clear Politics sets the data…
Corbyn drops to his lowest level yet amongst those who voted LAB last May
More numbers, no doubt, for Corbynistas to remain in denial about Every month for more than 40 years the pollster Ipsos MORI has carried out leader ratings. The question format has been the same simply asking people whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the leaders. As I’ve argued and shown these ratings have proved to be a better indicator of General Election outcomes than standard voting intentions. If we’d have followed these at GE1992 and GE2015…
If all goes to Dave’s plan British voters will be filling in one of these in just 144 days
What the #EUref ballot paper looks like pic.twitter.com/3fyOYNUmer — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2016 The online-phone EURef poll gap remains REVISED #EURef polling table showing all published surveys over past 2 months pic.twitter.com/ogzBOR97h5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2016 A picture of the actual referendum ballot paper was featured on the BBC Daily Politics this morning. The pic above is a screen shot. There’s something about seeing a ballot paper that makes an election very real and all…
The turnout problem facing Bernie Sanders as seen by the NYT’s Nate Cohn
The turnout challenge facing Sanders as seen by Nate Cohn. NYThttps://t.co/VlNiAMKJlq pic.twitter.com/69oECgsHik — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2016 The full article is here
A week to go until Iowa: the Great American Gamble – to Trump or No Trump
7 days till Iowa. How the polls did in previous electionshttps://t.co/d28erYivkh pic.twitter.com/iTFgroQNXF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2016 ARG Democratic poll in Iowa has Sanders 48% Clinton 45%GOP race Trump 33% Cruz 26%https://t.co/L1APSJBxtl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2016
Leader ratings side by side: How JC’s doing against DC generally & with party supporters
The next general election, of course is unlikely to be between Corbyn’s LAB and Cameron’s CON. The latter has made his exit intentions partially clear though we don’t know whether it’ll be before the election or afterwards. There’s doubt on the Labour side as well. Interestingly in recent days PB’s two LAB post writers, Henry G and Donald Brind, have both suggested that they don’t thing Corbyn will be there at the election. Whatever the chart above can only be…