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The Brexit paradox: The more likely it looks to happen the less likely it is to happen? After yesterday’s polls it might be easy to say Monday the 13th of June was the day the day polls turned, but as that Guardian front page above shows, it is never wise to assume things like that. One of the reasons is that earlier on this month I spoke to someone who is working for Vote Leave, and they were worried about…

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ORB Phone poll All Voters Remain 49 (-3) Leave 44 (+4) Certain to vote Leave 49 (+2) Remain 48 (nc) — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 13, 2016 The headline figures with Remain ahead by 5% is the figure ORB wishes to be judged on, whilst the Telegraph prefers to focus on the certain to vote figures. However what will really concern Remain is that Sir Lynton Crosby says Leave’s tactics ‘maybe paying off’ Whilst YouGov has Leave 7% ahead Exclusive –…

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Latest Betfair odds. Leave was only a 16% chance a few weeks ago. £1.8m matched in the last day. £26m matched so far pic.twitter.com/qvHmwuHQrK — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 13, 2016 The latest ICM polls for The Guardian are out. Support for leaving the EU is strengthening, with both phone and online surveys reporting a six-point lead, according to a new pair of Guardian/ICM polls. Leave now enjoys a 53%-47% advantage once “don’t knows” are excluded, according to the research conducted…

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Correction Latest @OpiniumResearch #EURef poll Remain 44 (+1) Leave 42 (+1) Fieldwork 7th June – 10th June https://t.co/lGhkC9rnTz — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 11, 2016 YouGov for Sunday Times:Leave 43%Remain 42% — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) June 11, 2016 YouGov for Sunday Times:Who is "scaremongering"?41% think Remain have done more, 28% think leave have done more. — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) June 11, 2016 YouGov/ST 55% think LEAVE exaggerated immigration claims but 49% say they're true63% think REMAIN exaggerated economy claims (40% true)…

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Exclusive: Times/YouGov EUref poll sees Leave Lead disappear – 1pt lead for "remain" pic.twitter.com/pDAmammHRS — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) June 6, 2016 New ORB EUREF phone poll Remain 48 (-3) Leave 47 (+1) — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 6, 2016 Sir Lynton Crosby's write up of the ORB poll https://t.co/GT5NuB8R4z pic.twitter.com/DVgwpnoLYo — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 6, 2016 I’m finding all of this very confusing, head says Remain are going to win this, heart says Leave is going to win. Just imagine…

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Opinium Remain 43 (-1) Leave 41 (+1) but for new methodology Leave would be ahead https://t.co/A25xws4OWv pic.twitter.com/Api6tEZytX — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 4, 2016 Like the ORB and ICM phone polls, there appears to have been a marked shift towards Leave before the methodology change, what will also delight Leave is this, Opinium say ‘In our last poll, 47% leaned towards Remaining while 32% leaned the other way. In this latest poll, undecideds are nearly evenly split with 36% leaning towards…

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