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Our final poll of the general election campaign gives the Conservatives a lead of 7 points over Labour #ge2017 https://t.co/B511292P2W pic.twitter.com/gMrz5dywHm — Opinium Research (@OpiniumResearch) June 6, 2017 Opinium has CON lead up 1 LDs up 2 We are going to see a lot of these in the next 36 hours – the final polls on which, rightly or wrongly, the pollsters will be judged. Opinium has had a good record recently. It got the London Mayoral race spot on,…

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Nate Silver’s 538 Why we shouldn’t rely on the “add a few points to the CON poll shares” this time One of the ongoing themes of this election is that the polls always understate the Tories. Certainly there have been a lot of instances where that has happened as the chart from 538 above illustrates. But it is a lot more subtle than that. Just go through it general election by general election. The polls were almost running level last…

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Comparing May's lead over Corbyn with @IpsosMORI's net satisfaction ratings compare with Cameron's lead over EdM 1 week before the election pic.twitter.com/Qn8CVeQQUE — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 4, 2017 Mrs May has picked the worst time for her ratings to crater With polls ranging from a Tory lead of 1% to 12%, and recent polling failures, it is wise to look at the various satisfaction/well/badly leadership ratings  because they (coupled with best/most trusted on the economy) have consistently predicted the winner…

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If there is another polling failure Theresa May can argue she didn’t blow a 25% lead against Corbyn because such a lead never existed. Looking at that chart above, it makes for unpleasant reading if you’re a Tory. Pretty much with every pollster that has consistently polled during this election campaign, the  Tory lead has shrunk a lot. Success equals performance minus anticipation. At the start of the campaign the polls indicated Labour were in for such a shellacking that…

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The front page of The Times made me say a phrase that rhymes with 'clucking bell' pic.twitter.com/p6f9QtQfZc — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 30, 2017 Tonight: we reveal YouGov's first seat by seat projection of the campaign – suggests Tories fall 16 seats short of overall majority pic.twitter.com/8ouPRHTZ7m — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) May 30, 2017 Tonight's YouGov data, which will be updated daily between now and polling day, based on complex model and 7,000 sample over 7 days pic.twitter.com/MzpXXifBFX — Sam…

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  In the summer of 1969, I was not yet two years old.  The world watched in awe as Apollo 11 landed on the moon.  My parents sat me in front of the television set so that I could say in years to come that I had seen it.  Of course, I don’t remember it at all. I try to keep this piece of family nostalgia in mind when thinking about how the world looks to younger voters.  The youngest…

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