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Category: Polls

Dealing with the polls’ Labour bias

Dealing with the polls’ Labour bias

Creating a tool for General Election betting One of the great challenges with General Election betting is the opinion poll bias to Labour. At the last three General Elections this has been an average 6.5%. At the Euro Election in June even the internet pollster, YouGov overstated Labour and understated the Tories. To help with this we are proposing what we are calling the Politicalbetting Polls Variance Calculation which weights and averages poll results according to their proven record in…

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Where’ve the opinion poll protestors been since 1992?

Where’ve the opinion poll protestors been since 1992?

Neil Kinnock: Sheffield Rally: 1992 General Election Labour bias +6.5% IGNORE; UKIP bias +4.9% PROTEST For nearly a decade and a half the opinion polls have had, when tested against real General Election results, an average pro-Labour bias of 6.5% and there’s been hardly a whisper from Labour MPs. The bias led to political gamblers making huge errors and losses at the 1992 General Election in which Neil Kinnock, above, made what amounted to a pre-election victory speech a few…

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Ignore the “rubbishing” of YouGov

Ignore the “rubbishing” of YouGov

Labour’s Barry Sheerman Polititcal gamblers should ignore what appears to be a concerted campaign, that includes Downing Street, to rubbish YouGov, the internet company that this week proved itself to be the UK’s most accurate polling company. Only two of the four organisations that regularly look at voting intention in the UK carried out surveys ahead of the European elections, the results of which came out on Sunday and Monday. One was Populus that uses conventional methodology – the other…

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The Euro Election polls test

The Euro Election polls test

What will almost certainly be the most important and significant test of the opinion polls ahead of the General Election has been completed now all the results from the Euro Elections in Great Britain are in. We’ve been saying for months that a test of this nature is unique and incredibly valuable for political gamblers as we look forward to the next General Election. There’s no hiding place when a pollster puts out numbers that can be tested against real…

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Will UKIP really win one in five UK Euro Seats?

Will UKIP really win one in five UK Euro Seats?

Which pollster has got it right? Although political gamblers have been denied any markets on the Euro Elections UK – there’s one group of organisations that have an enoromous amount riding on the results of Thursday election – the pollsters. For polticians who’ve been attacking their methods, for punters who rely on on them for data on how a campaign is going and the public will be able to test their performances against real results. In particular the extraordinary figures…

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YouGov has to be more “transparent”

YouGov has to be more “transparent”

Commons call for an investigation into the pollsters – now a big test The group of leading Labour MPs that has put down a Commons motion calling for an investigation into opinion polling firms over fears that ‘questionable methodology’ is “skewing the political process and tarnishing the industry’s reputation” will be able to get some empirical information next week on the effectiveness of the internet-based pollster, YouGov. For they will be able to compare YouGov’s predictions on the Elections with…

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YouGov versus ICM — Will June 10 provide the answer?

YouGov versus ICM — Will June 10 provide the answer?

The May ICM poll showing Labour 4% ahead has further reinforced the gap with YouGov which, like Populus, has the Tories 4% ahead.Which pollster should gamblers believe? This week’s YouGov poll showing that UKIP is heading to beat the Lib Dems for third place in next month’s Euro Election – an outcome that would surely mean the end for Charles Kennedy – should enable us to test the pollster.For if on June 10 YouGov can get both the low turnout…

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Will YouGov repeat its Scotish success in London?

Will YouGov repeat its Scotish success in London?

The conventional opinion polls got the London Mayoral Election so badly wrong in 2000 over-estimating Livingstone’s support that it’s no wonder that they’ve mostly avoided this June’s battle. There were six main polls in 2000 which showed leads over Steve Norris ranging from 34%-57% when on the day the margin was just 11.9%. The smallest error was a staggering 22%. Apart from one ICM survey reported in February the polling this time has been left to the internet pollster, YouGov….

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