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Category: Polls

UK version of Pollingreport launched

UK version of Pollingreport launched

bbc After the great success of the US site, Pollingreport, during the Presidential election the polling commentator, blogger and regular contributor to Politicalbetting, Anthony Wells, has launched his own version for the UK. This will provide a one-stop table and other data of all the latest polling information and should be invaluable in the run-up to the General Election. We’ve included it as a fixed link on the list on the right hand side of the page. This promises to…

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How the Tories could win with a 7% poll deficit

How the Tories could win with a 7% poll deficit

We publish this article not because we think that it will happen but to demonstrate how with support for the two main parties in the 30s a totally different dynamic will apply at the next election and issues like polling accuracy and the tactical unwind will become even more critical. Last time Labour was so far ahead that inflated leads did not matter. Now they do. Today’s ICM poll in the Guardian – LAB 37% CON 31% LIBD 23% –…

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Populus puts Lib Dems at 26%

Populus puts Lib Dems at 26%

Labour down 7% over the past year Today’s Populus Poll in the Times makes good reading for Simon Hughes (above) who was elected as President of the Liberal Democrats last week. The details are:- CON 30% (-2), LAB 32% (No change), LD 26%(+2), OTH 12% An indication of the challenge facing Labour is that its share is down 7% on a year ago which in itself was affected by the suicide a few weeks earlier of the scientist David Kelly….

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Polling those reluctant to admit their allegiance

Polling those reluctant to admit their allegiance

A poll for “shy Labour” as well as “shy Conservative” voters Every General Election gambler should hope that the Independent newspaper contracts again with the US polling organisation Rasmussen which at the 2001 General Election was the most consistent pollster and the only firm that got the Tory share right. The firm’s controversial methodology seeks to overcome the human interface issues of the conventional poll interviews without the limitations of internet surveys and could be ideal for identifying Labour supporters…

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Poll boosts for Lib Dems & Labour in UK and Kerry in US

Poll boosts for Lib Dems & Labour in UK and Kerry in US

UPDATE 2pm US ELECTIONS LATEST – Kerry/Edwards open up five point lead A poll just published and surveyed during the Boston Convention shows that the Democratic ticket has opened up a 5% lead over Bush/Cheney. The figures from Zogby international are 48-43. Amongst men the gap is just one percent – amongst women it is 9%. Prices have stayed stable with most UK bookmakers staying on 5/6 on both. The Iowa Electronic Exchange – where “political futures” are traded like…

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The pollster’s view of his poll

The pollster’s view of his poll

Andrew Cooper, head of Populus, posted this comment last night about his latest 30-28-28 poll. We thought it should be given a wider platform. Don’t look at the micro-movements – concentrate on the big picture. The next election result is not going to be 30-28-28; if the election had happened over the weekend when we polled the result wouldn’t have been 30-28-28. People are by and large aware of the context in which they’re being asked. The most telling number…

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Polling Accuracy – Which firm did best?

Polling Accuracy – Which firm did best?

Populus sets out its case Opinion polls are critical tools for political gamblers and in recent weeks we’ve made a number of observations about their accuracy. In particular we have looked at what happened at the Euro Elections last month when surveys by YouGov, in the Telegraph, and Populus, in the Times, could be compared with real results. Two days before the Euro vote we noted that YouGov was putting its reputation on the line with its very high figure…

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If Birmingham & Leicester vote according to the polls

If Birmingham & Leicester vote according to the polls

If electors in tomorrow’s two by-election vote in accordance with the latest national opinion polls then Labour will have huge victories in both Birmingham and Leicestereven though the party’s share nationally has dropped by ten per cent since the last General Election. According to the latest General Election projection produced for each Westminster seat by the City mathematician, Martin Baxter, these would be the results:- Birmingham Hodge Hill LAB 50.8%: CON 19.3%: LIB 11.1%: OTH 18.6% Leicester South LAB 43.4%:…

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