Survey gets reaction to Howard’s abortion stance A YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph shows that most people, including a large majority of women, agree with Michael Howard that the 24-week time limit on legal abortions should be cut back. And while the vast majority of respondents said that abortion would not affect the way they vote 13% said they would be “more likely to vote Conservative” as against 9% saying they would be less likely. So if YouGov have…
We have received an unconfirmed report about a new poll on the voting intentions of UK students that it is said will be published in the Times Higher Educational Supplement tomorrow. The figures we have with changes on a simillar poll last month are LD 39 (+2) : LAB 29 (-4): CON 24 (+4) . So the Lib Dem lead over Labour has increased by 6%. It’s also interesting that the Tories are doing quite well amongst a group not…
Crosby campaign consolidates the Tory right flank An extraordinary aspect from the detailed data of today’s NOP survey in the Independent is that support for UKIP has all but disappeared. According to Anthony Wells at UK Pollingreport the pollster found just one person – specifically a woman between the ages of 35-44 living in the London region – who said she was voting for the party that secured more than 16% of the vote in last year’s Euro Elections. Ever…
Did Tony Blair call it wrongly on the terror bill? The first poll since last week’s parliamentary battle on the terror laws shows a big move to the Tories. NOP’s monthly poll for the Independent has with changes from their poll a month LAB 39(-3): CON 34% (+4): LD 19%(+1). The survey was carried out between Friday and Sunday, so would have been mainly in the aftermath of the Parliamentary battle. Last week the view was that Tory and Lib…
But good news for Charles Kennedy Women voters have turned against Tony Blair according to an ICM poll for tomorrow’s News of the World. The main points:- Fewer than one in 10, (9%), say he should fulfil his pledge to serve a full third term as Prime Minister if re-elected. A quarter say he should go before the poll, expected on May 5. Almost one in three, (29%), say he should quit immediately. While 62% of women see Mr Blair…
The city mathematician, Martin Baxter (above) , has produced his latest prediction based on appyling the changes in the latest polls, weighted for sample size, to what happened in 2001 on a uniform national swing. Baxter’s latest vote shares are: LAB 39.09: CON 33.4: LD 19.32. His calculator produces this predicted House of Commons – LAB 388: CON 176: LD 52. There are three things that could go wrong with this prediction: the poll figures might be overstating Labour’s margin;…
No “Margaret’s shoulder” bonus for the Tories The February poll by Populus for the Times shows no improvement for the Tories. The only change is a 2% switch between Labour and the Lib Dems – a move that might have been helped by the fact that interviewing took place during the party’s Spring Conference when they were getting more TV time than usual. These are the party shares with changes from February: LAB 39 (-2): CON 32 (nc): LD 20…
It’s a three-way split amongst the 18-24 year olds A poll of 18-24 year-olds by YouGov in the Telegraph shows that Labour is failing to make an impact amongst young voters – which in the past has been one of the party’s strongest areas of support. The split was LAB 31: CON 31: LD 30 and is in sharp contrast to a similar survey before the 1997 Election which recorded about half in this age group supporting Labour. But turnout…