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Category: Polls

Populus Poll boost for Ken Clarke

Populus Poll boost for Ken Clarke

But is it because he is the only Tory that still has “name recognition” ? A Populus Poll in the Times this morning has Ken Clarke well ahead of David Davis in the Tory leadership stakes both amongst the electorate at large and. perhaps more importantly, amongst party supporters. He beats the Shadow Home Secretary by 40% to 26% amongst the general public and by 48% to 40% amongst Conservative voters. But compared with the current second favourite, David Cameron,…

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Can the pollsters really end their pro-Labour bias?

Can the pollsters really end their pro-Labour bias?

How would more accurate polls affect gambling? With the first post-May 5th opinion poll due out tomorrow there are encouraging signs that the polling industry is coming to grips with the issue that has dogged it for nearly half a century – the ongoing over-statement of Labour’s position which Martin Baxter calculated was 2.7% at the General Election. At a seminar last week organised by the Adam Smith Institute a panel consisting of myself and representatives from MORI, YouGov and…

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YouGov: UK opposition to EU Constitution growing

YouGov: UK opposition to EU Constitution growing

Will Blair stay longer if France votes NO? With the people of France voting tomorrow in their crucial referendum on the EU Constitution a YouGov poll UK opinion in today’s Daily Telegraph has NO 46%: YES 21%: when asked whether they “approve” the new Constitution. When the pollster last asked the question in January opinion was split by 45-25% so the margin has increased by five points since then. There is a sharp difference between supporters of the different parties….

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YouGov stakes its claim to supremacy

YouGov stakes its claim to supremacy

Will the internet polling argument ever be resolved? In a move not designed to win him any friends within the UK polling industry the boss of YouGov, Peter Kellner, has posted a strongly argued piece, under the provocative heading “YouGov – consistently right” to reinforce his claim that his firm’s approach to taking the nation’s political temperature is the right one. Although he acknowledges that all the polls were within the same area in their eve of poll prediction and…

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How the pollsters dealt with their final polls

How the pollsters dealt with their final polls

ICM’s raw data had Labour nearly 20% ahead An extraordinary insight into the challenge that pollsters have in finding representative samples is revealed in the detailed data for the final surveys which is just being made available. We all know now that in terms of the popular vote in Great Britain Labour beat the Conservatives by 36.2% to 33.2% – or about eleven Labour voters for each ten Conservative ones. But base data for the final surveys ICM and Populus…

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The final polls – the ones that will be remembered

The final polls – the ones that will be remembered

The pollsters converge in their final surveys The final polls for Election 2005 are just coming in and there are one or two surprises:- ICM in the Guardian has LAB 38: CON 32: LD 22 YouGov in the Telegraph has LAB 37: CON 32: LD 24 Populus in the Times has LAB 38: CON 32: LD 21 NOP in the Independent has LAB 36: CON 33: LD 23 These follow an internet survey from Harris this morning that has returned…

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How many 2001 votes will Labour retain?

How many 2001 votes will Labour retain?

Will losses be more than Tony Blair’s feared one in ten? As Tony Blair seeks to focus wavering Labour supporters on the implications of “one in ten” supporters from last time not going with the party on Thursday it’s worth looking again at some the detail from recent polls. We have raised this before but according to the last ICM poll for which there is full data the equivalent of 2 out of every 11 people told the interviewer that…

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More good polling news for Tony Blair

More good polling news for Tony Blair

Labour maintains its 3% YouGov lead as activists wait to watch the postal votes being opened A YouGov poll in Monday’s Telegraph has CON 33 (nc) 36(nc): LD 24 (+1). An ICM poll might be published as well overnight and we will update this as soon as it is available. Overall the figures are very stable with the CON-LAB split staying about the same and the Lib Dems showing an improvement. It has been a quiet day on the betting…

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