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Category: Polls

YouGov poll gives debate to Davis – but Cameron 36% ahead

YouGov poll gives debate to Davis – but Cameron 36% ahead

Updated 0940 Remember Nixon-Kennedy from 1960 As I predicted on Tuesday David Davis, did much better than expectations and this is being seen as a big boost to his campaign. But how much better, will it help him and are there still betting possibilities? According to today’s YouGov poll in the Telegraph Tory members who had watched the programme said Davis won by 45-18. Members are backing Cameron for leader by 68-32. This is down from 77-23 ten days ago….

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Why I’m betting against the opinion polls

Why I’m betting against the opinion polls

Take the 3/1 against Cameron getting below 66% At the May 5th General Election one of my biggest wins came from betting against the opinion polls. From my analysis I was convinced that they were overstating Labour and I backed my judgment with a four figure amount per unit spread bet. At a time when the likes of ICM, Populus and several others had the party in the 40s I bet that the equivalent of the GB share of the…

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YouGov puts Labour 8 points ahead

YouGov puts Labour 8 points ahead

Amended Cameron 4-1 ahead amongst Tory voters The scale of the challenge facing the next Tory leader – whether Davis or Cameron – is reflected in the October YouGov survey for the Telegraph showing that Labour’s lead is unmoved at 8 points over the past month. The shares are LAB 40: CON 32. As yet there is no figure for the Lib Dems available on-line. A consolation for the Tories is that it could be worse. At this stage after…

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MORI: Brown’s lead would be 3% with Cameron and 7% with Davis

MORI: Brown’s lead would be 3% with Cameron and 7% with Davis

The Mori polling organisation have just published details on their website of the Tory leadership poll that was featured in the Sun this morning. With a sample of just 508, compared with the normal 1000+, the survey has to be treated with a little bit of caution, but it does show Cameron having 33% support amongst the general public compared with 13% for David Davis and 11% for Liam Fox who was still in the race when the field-work was…

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Can Cameron make the polls move?

Can Cameron make the polls move?

How long has he got to prove he can make a difference? There is only one reason why Tory MPs and Tory members want David Cameron as their next leader – they believe that he can lead the party to greater electoral success than the alternative. They desperately want to return to power and the inexperienced and relatively unknown Cameron appears to offer this prospect more than David Davis. If Cameron is to lose the final ballot in the coming…

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YouGov: Fox in second place amongst members

YouGov: Fox in second place amongst members

New poll blow to Team Davis Cameron tightens to 1/10 on Betfair With the final MP ballot due to take place this afternoon a YouGov poll of Tory party members in the Telegraph this morning has Cameron 59%: Fox 18%: Davis 15%. This poll is taken very seriously because a similar survey ahead of the 2001 membership ballot predicted the final result to within one percent. Other findings:- If the membership ballot was between Davis and Cameron the Shadow Education…

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Cocaine poll boost send punters rushing to Cameron

Cocaine poll boost send punters rushing to Cameron

Tories divide 69:29 saying hard drugs should not be a barrier The absence of bad stories in the Sunday papers and a new opinion poll have led to heavy betting on David Cameron this morning. On the market sensitive Betfair exchange his price has tightened from 0.85/1 to 0.72/1 while the betting recovery on David Davis has been reversed. For the last few days there has been a strong view that today’s papers, particularly the Mail on Sunday, could be…

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More poll gloom for David Davis

More poll gloom for David Davis

How big a mountain has the former front runner got to climb? A Populus Poll in the Times in the morning has more gloomy news for David Davis with big falls on previous surveys by the same pollster. It follows the same trend as the recent YouGov and ICM polls which have all recorded a big switch to David Cameron in recent days. When Tory voters were asked who would make best leader it was Cameron 33% (+30): Clarke 33%…

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