Is it because only they think he’s doing worse on the economy? While the big focus in the past few days has been on the Lib Dems the major leadership issue in UK politics is on Labour because who is chosen to succeed Tony Blair will almost certainly become Prime Minister. Charles Kennedy’s future has almost no impact on that one way or the other. The full data-set from Populus ‘s December Times poll that had Cameron’s Tories beating Brown’s…
Kennedy’s personal ratings reach rock-bottom The latest Daily Telegraph YouGov poll, a little earlier this month because of Christmas, confirms the trend of recent surveys and gives Cameron’s Conservatives a 2 point lead over Labour with the LibDems at 18%. The vote shares with changes on the survey last weekend are CON 38%(+1): LAB 36%(nc): LD 18%(nc). This is the best YouGov performance for the Tories since May 2004 when the internet pollster had Michael Howard’s party on 40%. For…
Populus gives Tories a 6% lead if Brown becomes Labour leader Our Labour General Election Index – showing the implied probability of the party winning most seats based on best betting prices – has moved just two per cent on the week in spite of all the hype associated with the change of Tory leader. We have restricted the graph to just the seven days since David Cameron was elected leader and, as can be seen, the change has been…
.. ICM and YouGov put the Tories into the lead Two new polls for tomorrow’s Sunday papers show that the Tories are now ahead. ICM in the Sunday Telegraph has with changes on the last survey from the pollster in November CON 37%(+4): LAB 35%(-3)LD 21%(+2). YouGov has, with changes on the poll that was published in Tuesday afternoon CON 37%(+1): LAB 36%(nc):LD 18%(nc). For David Cameron and his team the ICM figures must be particularly pleasing. Excluding the extraordinary…
Can he win if people don’t like him? Tucked away in the YouGov poll that came out on Tuesday afternoon were some numbers that might be at the heart of the Labour succession and the 2009/10 General Election campaign. Electors might agree with Gordon Brown’s policies, they might respect him as a politician but they do not seem to like him. When asked whether four named politicians had “an attractive personality” the ratings were:- David Cameron 23%: Tony Blair 18%:…
Was the coverage of the poll that moved the markets a step too far? Since December 2002, almost without exception, the Times has published the regular Populus poll on the Tuesday of the first full week of the month. So far this December there has been no Populus poll in the paper and yesterday the BBC produced a survey from the pollster on the Today programme. Was that survey originally intended for the Times? Looking at the detailed data it…
Poll boost as Cameron starts the leadership cycle A YouGov poll taken yesterday and today for Sky News has with changes on the last survey from the pollster last month CON 36: LAB 36: LD 18 The survey comes on good day for the controversial internet pollster. YouGov’s final poll of Tory members for the leadership contest was within one per cent. To another question in in the latest poll “The next general election will probably not be held until…
But will the internet pollster’s panel approach be proved right? The only betting interest left in the Tory leadership race is for those, like me, who were tempted by the vote share market that Paddy Power had up for a time. On November 1st I suggested that the 3/1 that was then available on Cameron getting below 66% seemed good value and I put on as much as the bookie would allow me. Today’s final YouGov poll of Tory members…