Could the collapse encourage a Campbell Coronation? The January Populus Poll is out in the Times this morning and shows CON 36 (+1): LAB 39 (+1): LD 16 (-3). So the big move since before Christmas has been away from the Lib Dems. This is likely to have a big impact on the party’s MPs as they consider whether to nominate another candidate so that there is a contest. Would a protracted leadership election provide a poll boost like that…
Revised YouGov figures reinforce their dilemma With Charles Kennedy calling for a contest to decide his replacement the party President, Simon Hughes, and the party’s Home Affairs spokesman, Mark Oaten have yet to say whether they want to fight Menzies Campell to join David Cameron and Tony Blair in the line line-up of main party leaders. With the best price available on Menzies Campbell being just 0.53/1 punters have made the 64 year old Edinburgh lawyer a strong favourite. His…
But why won’t the pollster answer any questions? The pollster for the Mail on Sunday, BPIX, reports a big drop in support for the Lib Dems in a survey this morning which is not available online. Its shares are with comparisons on the last published BPIX poll in November are CON 38 (+3): LAB 38(+1): LD 16 (-4). BPIX is not listed as a member of the British Polling Council and has never responded to my requests for information about…
Survey has Campbell 49%: Oaten 14%: Hughes 21% Any resididual hope that Lib Dem members might save the day for Charles Kennedy are dashed this morning in a YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph. In a survey restricted to just members of the party the provisional results show that 65% want a new leader for the General Election with just 27% saying he should stay. The poll is also a severe blow to leadership hopefuls Simon Hughes and Mark Oaten….
Will weighting changes knock 2-3% off Labour’s position? With the chances of Labour winning most seats at the next election down to just 53% on the betting markets could we see further price changes if the polls continue to show a Tory recovery? The next scheduled poll is from Populus early next week and punters should treat the headline results with some care until we have had time to analyse the detail because we might be about to see a…
Gordon Brown is no longer the “grass is greener” alternative In its main editorial at the end of 2005 the Daily Telegraph speculates this morning about the possibility that next year could be a General Election year. It argues: “..Suppose that, at some stage in the coming 12 months, Tony Blair were to decide that he had had enough of the pettiness and contumely of domestic politics. Imagine that he were to seek a grander stage…that his place were to…
Guardian leader: “Get used to it: the Tories are back” The monthly ICM poll in the Guardian confirms the trend of recent other surveys and has Cameron’s Conservatives still ahead but doing even better against Gordon Brown. The shares compared with the last ICM poll nine days ago are CON 37 (nc): LAB 36 (+1): LD 21 (nc). But to the question of how people would vote if it was Cameron’s Tories against Brown’s Labour the split is CON 41…
Even if true Cameron would still not get a majority? With so many political developments taking place every new opinion is being put under great scrutiny and the latest, from Mori, has the biggest shock so far. If confirmed by other pollsters the change in opinion it represents could totally change the landscape of UK politics. For the poll in the Observer reports an astonishing turnaround in the fortunes of the Tories since David Cameron became leader. Mori’s “certain to…