But is Anthony King right with his historical comparisons? This month’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph has with changes on last month: CON 38(-1): LAB 33 (nc): LD 18 (nc). So the only difference is a one point fall in Tory support reducing the margin over Labour to 5%. These shares are broadly similar to this week’s Guardian ICM survey which had the Tories on 39% – four points ahead. The big difference between the two pollsters is the…
What’s Ming’s party’s role in the Cameron-Brown world? The July ICM poll in the Guardian did match its billing – it was full of surprises for all three parties. The Tory 39% equalling their highest share from the pollster in 13 years; Labour maintaining their 35% in spite of everything and the Lib Dem 17% being their lowest ICM figure since before the Iraq War. Until now all the focus has been on David Cameron attracting Lib Dem supporters and…
But Cameron needs more than 39% before he can think of Number 10? After all the waiting the delayed figures from the Guardian’s July ICM survey are now out and they have the Tories moving forward, Labour holding steady but the Lib Dems falling back. These are the shares with comparisons on the last ICM poll which was in the Sunday Telegraph nearly three weeks ago. CON 39 (+3): LAB 35 (nc): LD 17 (-1).. Note that the reports that…
If you want to know how the parties are doing you’ll have to wait If you had hoped to wake up this morning to read how the parties are getting on as recorded in the longest running and most authoritative polling series in British politics – then tough. The Guardian has decided to play polling striptease with its ICM July poll so although there are hints of goodies to come the paper is making us wait for the key data…
Do “budget” non-voting intention surveys tell us anything? So far we haven’t covered the ICM poll findings that were presented to Ming Campbell in a 25 minute feature on Newsnight on Wednesday evening. The most cruel figures from the new leader’s point of view was a comparison with his predecessor, Charles Kennedy. By 53-26 those surveyed preferred the old leader to the new. Comparing which of the three presumed party leaders at the next election “had the qualities needed to…
Dave down, Ming up in YouGov’s latest tracker poll The above chart is from the latest report by Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report showing the results of the YouGov daily tracker on perceptions of leading politicians. It is all part of data in the firm’s Brand Index survey which involves questioning, online, 2,000 people everyday. Just after the local elections Cameron had a positive rating of 28%. Today’s report shows that has dipped to 12% and is now below…
The last time a party elected a leader in the face of the polls In August 2001 ICM carried out a poll to test the reactions of ordinary voters to the two remaining candidates in that year’s Tory leadership contest – Iain Duncan Smith and Ken Clarke. It will be recalled that these two had got to the final short-list after Michael Portillo had been squeezed out in the Tory MP part of the selection process. When asked to compare…
Do Scottish leaders go down badly in England? In what must be the first survey of its kind confined to one specific English region there’s striking news tonight of the different reactions voters have to the two Scottish party leaders and the English Tory one. The survey from Marketing Means was carried out last week and involved contacting 1,008 people. The vote shares found were with changes on the General Election CON 41 (+3): LAB 22 (-1): LD 30 (-3)…..