Tories take record 9% lead with ICM After a 24 hours which has seen biting criticism from inside his party at the plans to increase the number of women Tory MPs the ICM Guardian poll for August is out this morning and shows that his party in in a position where it could just have a working majority after the next election. The headline figures with changes on last month are CON 40% (+1): LAB 31% (-4): LDEM 22% (+5)….
Home Secretary’s “positive impression” rating up 15% in eleven days The latest YouGov BrandIndex data published on the UK Polling Report site shows a massive boost for the Home Secretary, John Reid (GREEN) since he came to prominence over his handling of the alleged terror plots. As can be seen from the chart he is well ahead of his potential Labour leadership rival, Gordon Brown (BROWN) and now enjoys poll ratings ahead of the Tory leader, David Cameron (BLUE), whose…
Brown has 7% lead on Cameron on being a “capable PM” The Sunday Times this morning features a Mori poll on immigration and leader ratings but without a voting intention question and without using the measures other pollsters employ to ensure that their samples are politically representative. The most significant finding is that 47% of those surveyed think that Tony Blair should go immediately with 56% wanting him out before the end of the year. This is by far the…
Yougov finds that less than one in two believes the politicians In a YouGov poll for this week’s Spectator just 49% of those surveyed said “No” to the question “Do you think British politicians generally exaggerate the terrorist threat?” A total of 12% said they did exaggerate “because they are ill informed themselves” while 23%, nearly a quarter, agreed with the statement “Yes, they do – and they know that the truth is not as they portray it”. Men seem…
Will Cameron’s absence and Reid’s profile turn the position round? During the past four months there have been twenty one consecutive voting intention polls from five different pollsters all showing a Tory lead – the party’s best polling performance for a decade and a half. The margins have been between two and ten points and the highest Labour share has been 35. But is this all about to change? Could one or two of the next scheduled polls have Labour…
The latest YouGov tracker poll is embargoed until midnight After making their tracker data available to PB.C exclusively last week YouGov is now issuing it to all the press and has put a midnight embargo on it. So I’ll have to wait until then before I can publish it on the site. This is the data from the pollster’s daily brand index survey which involves surveying 600 people each day about their perceptions of major brand names. Reactions to some…
Are we now in an era of more accurate polling? At the 2005 General Election I made several thousand pounds on a number of spread bets “selling” the projected Labour share. The spreads were very much in line with what the pollsters were reporting and I believed that they were over-stating the party. Thus one bet was at 38.5% against the actual 36.3% – meaning my winnings were the difference between the two numbers multiplied by the four figure sum…
A boost for Ming or the product of the firm’s methodology? The latest poll from Mori in today’s Financial Times has with changes on the last poll at the end of June CON 36 (nc): LAB 32 (-1): LD 24 (+3). – so a big boost for the Lib Dem leader with the biggest share for the party since last September. The poll is quite old. The survey started on July 20th – one day before work began on the…