Is it now just between her and Obama? Just five days after the black senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, announced that he was taking the first formal steps to run for the presidency in 2006 Hillary Rodham Clinton has this afternoon made the same move. This is how the Betfair betting exchange prices look for the Democratic nomination: The big question for punters is whether any of the other candidates has a chance against the two high profile front runners?…
UPDATED..UPDATED..UPDATED..UPDATED..UPDATED..UPDATED.. But is a Mori lead good news for Brown-Blair? There’s the monthly Ipsos-Mori poll out in the Sun this morning but the only reference to it appears to be in the above extract reproduced from the online editorial page. At the time of writing there does not seem to be a story with the figures. What we have suggests that the main voting figures put Labour ahead. This article will be updated when the full information is available. For…
Tories now open up a 7 point gap A big boost for David Cameron’s Tory party and some better news for Gordon Brown are the main features of the first poll of 2007 – from Populus – in the Times this morning. As the extract reproduced from the Times website shows, the shares and changes on the same poll in December are CON 39% (+5): LAB 32% (-1): LD 18% (-1). Putting these shares in the Anthony Wells seat calculator…
Putting today’s Communicate Research figures into the Baxter calculator The above is from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus site and shows what happens if you put the party shares from this morning’s Communicate Research poll for the Independent into his Commons seat predictor. For the numbers the pollster reports are, compared with last month’s figures CON 36 (+2): LAB 37 (+1): LD 14 (-3). The fieldwork for the survey took place in the week before Christmas and ended two days before…
But why no voting intention figures? The December poll from Communicate Research is out this morning in the Independent but the online edition, at least, does not appear to feature voting intention figures. These were clearly asked because breakdowns of how supporters of different parties answered some of the questions are included in the story. Maybe that detail will come tomorrow. Andrew Grice, the paper’s political editor, puts the focus on the “who would make the best PM” question where…
Ming’s party at lowest point since the Mark Oaten revelations A new YouGov poll in the Sunday Times this morning has the Lib Dems down at their lowest point with the internet pollster since the Mark Oaten crisis during the leadership contest earlier in the year. The shares are compared with the Telegraph YouGov poll reported on Friday are – CON 37% (nc): LAB 32% (-1): LD 15% (-2). This decline is in line with the trend from other polls….
Should Gordon be worried about the eulogies to Blair Tucked away in the detail of yesterday’s YouGov poll were the responses to the question “Who would make the best Prime Minister”? When the options were Blair, Cameron and Campbell 79% of Labour voters said Tony with just one per cent naming Cameron But when the same question was asked with Gordon Brown substituted for Tony Blair the proportion of Labour voters going for Brown dropped to 71% with 6% naming…
Why is less importance attached to the view of Labour voters? Detailed data from the December ICM and Populus polls shows that the reported shares followed the biggest scaling back of the views of those who said they voted Labour last time since the last election. If this process had not happened then, in spite of all the recent troubles, Blair-Brown’s party would have probably had poll leads. For in each of the two polls that we have had in…