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Category: Polls

The big question is how much Corbyn’s LAB can capitalise on the Tory turmoil

The big question is how much Corbyn’s LAB can capitalise on the Tory turmoil

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Will the red team start to replicate its 2012 polling performance With the Tory difficulties that appear to mount by the day the time has come surely for Corbyn’s LAB to make significant advances in the polls. What’s been quite striking since June when LAB exceeded expectations is how the gap between the two main parties has remained relatively constant and on the low side. There’s been the odd poll showing a 6 point gap but mostly it has been…

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Month by month during 2017 how the “Leaving EU right” lead has moved in YouGov’s Brexit tracker

Month by month during 2017 how the “Leaving EU right” lead has moved in YouGov’s Brexit tracker

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There’s a new YouGov poll out which has LAB retaining its 2 points lead over CON. The survey also included the firm’s regular trackers on opinion in relation to Brexit. In broad terms this has Brexit right at 43% (up 1) with Brexit wrong at 45% (same) so really not much change. The big picture is seen in the chart above – the nation remains broadly divided with the monthly average “right to leave” lead for only the second month…

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“TEN COMMANDMENTS” poll finds LD voters most relaxed about murder with Leavers least concerned about lying

“TEN COMMANDMENTS” poll finds LD voters most relaxed about murder with Leavers least concerned about lying

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It’s YouGov’s cross-breaks which caught my attention That’s all fine but dataset from YouGov, helpfully, includes party and Brexit cross-breaks so we can see if there are any particular distinctions for different parts of the electorate. Although the sub-sample size for the LDs is small the fact that they are strikingly out of line on murder and and stealing to be worth highlighting. The same goes for Leave voters who seemed more relaxed about adultery and telling lies. Have fun…

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Corbyn was far less a driver of the GE2017 LAB vote than many of his supporters maintain

Corbyn was far less a driver of the GE2017 LAB vote than many of his supporters maintain

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Just 13% named him as their main reason for voting LAB In the aftermath of the June 8th general election so much was happening politically that not much attention was paid to the above YouGov polling carried out shortly afterwards. For me the interesting thing was how, in relative terms. Corbyn does not appear to be key factor which has been very much the narrative since. Just 13% named him as their main reason. As can be seen from the…

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Newly published Survation poll sees LAB up 2 to a 6 point lead

Newly published Survation poll sees LAB up 2 to a 6 point lead

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And Remain 3 points ahead to hypothetical 2nd EuRef question Survation, the pollsters that was widely, and as it turned out unfairly, criticised in the run-up to GE2017 because it had the smallest CON leads has a new voting poll it. Its relatively old with its fieldwork being carried out in the week of the Tory conference when the blue team were making the headlines for all sorts of reason. The splits are CON 38%, LAB 44%, and LD 7%….

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What I’m hoping to tell the House of Lords next week about the polling fail at the general election

What I’m hoping to tell the House of Lords next week about the polling fail at the general election

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Some thoughts on what I might say A week today I’ll be travelling to Westminster where I have been invited to give evidence before the House of Lords Committee that’s carrying out a review of what went wrong with GE2017 polls. Depending on the questioning by their Lordships I expect to make the point that the campaign had been dominated by the CON landslide narrative that had been reinforced by the May 4th local and mayoral elections where the Tories…

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Every day Mrs May remains PM she’s buying the Tories at least one week in opposition.

Every day Mrs May remains PM she’s buying the Tories at least one week in opposition.

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Westminster voting intention: LAB: 44% (+2)CON: 40% (-1)LDEM: 9% (-)UKIP: 2% (-1)GRN: 1% (-1) via @IpsosMORI, 15 – 18 SepChgs. w July — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 21, 2017 % of public who find [X] to be a capable leader: T. May: 45% (-23)J. Corbyn: 38% (+14) via @IpsosMORI, 15 – 18 SepChgs. w/ Sep 2016 — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 21, 2017 % of public who find [X] to be of sound judgement: T. May: 36% (-20)J. Corbyn: 40%…

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Why the Corbynite candidate might not win the Scottish Labour Leadership

Why the Corbynite candidate might not win the Scottish Labour Leadership

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Why the Labour centrists stand a better chance in Scotland – @chris__curtis looks at Scottish Labour's membership https://t.co/WJtd00qpQ2 — YouGov (@YouGov) September 13, 2017 1/ For a start, Scottish Labour members are more centrist than Labour party members in England and Wales https://t.co/WJtd00qpQ2 pic.twitter.com/hTNXaEwrQJ — YouGov (@YouGov) September 13, 2017 2/ Scottish Labour saw less of an influx of new members following the 2015 general election… https://t.co/WJtd00qpQ2 pic.twitter.com/Mg4m5XkLWI — YouGov (@YouGov) September 13, 2017 3/ …this is in part because…

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