Why equidistance between the main parties should be Ming’s only policy Recriminations are continuing within the Lib Dems over the cock-up in Harrogate at the weekend that caused almost all of the media to report that Ming would do a deal with Gord but not Dave. Whether or not the leader was saying he favoured Labour really does not matter. What is key is how it was reported and the ammunition it will provide for both the Tories and Labour…
55% of voters want a “younger, newer, less experienced, rising star†The March survey by Populus for the Times follows the trend of the other recent telephone polls and shows a big increase in the Labour’s gap behind the Tories. The headline figures with comparisons on February are: CON 38%(+2): LAB 30%(-3): LD18%(-1). So last month’s 3% deficit has increased to 8% – which equals the biggest ever lead the pollster has recorded for the Conservatives. A month ago when…
How will the Populus version of the “named leader” question come out? Amidst all the reverberations from February’s ICM poll showing the Tories 13% ahead of Labour when Cameron and Brown are named as leaders few have recalled that a similar poll just two weeks earlier had the margin at just one per cent. In fact in that survey, by Populus, Labour had a 3% deficit in the headline figures that was reduced to just one point when Brown was…
YouGov reports a large lead for the International Development Secretary The boss of YouGov, Peter Kellner, has emailed me with further information from this morning’s poll of 589 constituency members of the Labour party and 662 levy-paying union members. For as well as the issues featured in the Daily Telegraph the survey asked how respondents would vote in the deputy leadership ballot. The details will be posted on the YouGov webs-site during the day but Kellner has confirmed to me…
Brown would beat Miliband by 52% – 25% A YouGov poll of 1,115 Labour members for the Daily Telegraph this morning has found overwhelming support for a leadership contest when Tony decides to call it a day. A total of 73% said they thought a contest was better against just 11% who thought the Chancellor should get the job unopposed. In such a vote Brown would command 63% with 21% saying they would reject him. But if a strong candidate…
Tory lead up to 11% with Communicate Research Reproduced above is a snap-shot of the top of the page when you put the latest poll numbers into Martin Baxter’s seat calculator on his excellent Political Calculus site which many MPs in marginal seats are said to be visiting a lot at the moment. For the February poll in the Independent from Communicate Research reports a big swing to the Tories. These are the figures compared with the January survey CON…
The internet pollster reinforces the trend picked up by ICM Today’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph shows almost no change in the overall voting intentions on the last survey by the internet pollster – but provides more evidence following this week’s ICM poll of growing doubts on the electoral appeal of the Chancellor, Gordon Brown. The headline figures are with changes on the last YouGov survey two and a half weeks ago are:- CON 37% (nc): LAB 32% (nc):…
Is the US pollster right on the language that both men are adopting? This, I know, is getting into dangerous territory because two words that lead to the biggest explosions on PBC are “Frank” and “Luntz” – ever since the US pollster’s famous “focus group” screened on Newsnight during the Conservative Party conference in October 2005. In this week’s edition of the Spectator, out this morning, Luntz is the author of the cover feature on how both men use language…