YouGov reports a large lead for the International Development Secretary
The boss of YouGov, Peter Kellner, has emailed me with further information from this morning’s poll of 589 constituency members of the Labour party and 662 levy-paying union members. For as well as the issues featured in the Daily Telegraph the survey asked how respondents would vote in the deputy leadership ballot.
The details will be posted on the YouGov webs-site during the day but Kellner has confirmed to me that Hilary Benn “has a large lead in both groups”.
Given YouGov’s remarkable record with membership polling this is critical information and indicates that Benn looks like the winner.
This will affect the betting where Alan Johnson is the current favourite.
This article will be updated when the full data is available.
UPDATE 1220: Full details of the poll are now up on the YouGov site here. What is interesting is the comparison of the responses from the two section – the ordinary party members and those in trade unions. That former are much more enthusiastic about Brown across a range of questions.
The most significant difference is that 36% of TU members would reject Brown in an affirmative ballot compared with only 11% of members. This is a selection:-